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World Rugby announces historic agreement on long-term calend

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Re: World Rugby announces historic agreement on long-term ca

Postby carbonero » Mon, 22 May 2017, 19:28

sk 88 wrote:With Super Rugby's contraction hopefully this stupid switch of internationals from June to July can be booted into the long grass where it belongs.

Not really. Super Rugby will have one extra round in 2018.

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Re: World Rugby announces historic agreement on long-term ca

Postby TheStroBro » Mon, 22 May 2017, 21:51

dropkick wrote:A 10 month season for professional rugby players is insanity.

Aviva and Pro 12 have 12 sides, their season should contract immensely. No reason to play as much as they do.

I can't believe I read that stuff this morning...owners at Aviva are idiots.

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Re: World Rugby announces historic agreement on long-term ca

Postby tellchar » Sat, 03 Feb 2018, 23:11

I hope that July window for tests means that european club season will start at October instead of September, and players will have 2 months for rest and pre-games. But in my opinion the best solution is to make one 5-6 week window for tests in Sept-Oct, as I wrote in thread:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1431&start=25

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Re: World Rugby announces historic agreement on long-term ca

Postby Silver Fox » Sun, 11 Mar 2018, 19:33

Pfjuuw, I finally figured it out.

People have been complaining consistently about the lack of opportunities to play against T1 nations.
If that happens I can't help thinking of the announcement last year of the agreement on a global calendar for 2020 to 2031.
Among other things it mentioned an increase of 39% of tier2 against tier1 matches based on merit.

At the time I was very sceptical. Why? Because 6 matches in November has been the case for years, so nothing new there. Tours to Japan and the Americas also had been part of the annual schedule already. And furthermore because part of the expansion was visiting and hosting the Pacific Islanders where historically already over 70% of all t1-t2 matches have been involving the PI's and Japan. So, much more of the same and I didn't see a significant improvement.
On top of that, this fixing of the status quo was agreed for a period of 12 (!!) years.

At the time I was sceptical but, I have to admit, without having been able to look at the specifics.
So I looked up the article and tried to put all the tids and bits together to figure out what it was that was agreed upon.
https://www.worldrugby.org/news/232038

Here is a summary of all the hints that are given in the article.
General bla bla:
- Emerging rugby powers will be integrated into the July and November windows, providing annual opportunities against the SANZAAR and Six Nations unions across July and November.
- annual opportunities for the Pacific Islands, USA, Canada, Japan and the European nations, including Georgia and Romania.

Cocerning the schedule:
- SANZAAR Unions committed to hosting tier two nations in July window.
- France and England to tour the Pacific Islands while USA, Canada and Japan also host tours
- Georgia and Romania to host matches against Six Nations unions within the July window
- a rotation principle that includes emerging rugby powers
- I read a comment by Steve Tew somewhere (but can't find the article anymore) that there will be more diversity to the July program to make the schedule more attractive to the public. And: they will not be giving up too many T1 tests because revenues need to stay garanteed.
- Six Nations unions to collectively host a guaranteed minimum of six tier two fixtures in each November window

Concerning numbers:
- Six Nations unions to collectively host a guaranteed minimum of six tier two fixtures in each November window
- Tours to SANZAAR nations immediately after a Rugby World Cup year will be reduced to two matches, promoting player welfare the year after rugby’s biggest event
- July window comprises three tests (with the exception of the year after Rugby World Cup when SANZAAR unions will host two-test series)
- Record minimum of 110 tier one v tier two matches over the period as emerging rugby nations are integrated into the schedule throughout the period (a 39 per cent increase on the previous schedule)

And for me the crucial one:
- Ability for rankings to determine inclusion of tier two teams in the schedule after Rugby World Cup 2019 and 2023 tournaments to ensure top emerging teams at the time are provided with tier one opportunities based on merit

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

So in July Japan, the Americas, the Pacific Islands and Europe host 6N tours and the RC teams are hosting 1 t2 team each.
How does this work out and how do the figures add up?

Let's first take a look at the schedule as it is now. The most representative is that of 2016:
In brackets the ranking per Januari 1st of that year.
The colours obviously present the region a nation is from.
Image

We see that in 2016 11 T1 vs T2 matches have been played, 4 in June and 7 in November.
Drawing up the same schedules for the last 2 full RWC cycles (2012-2015 and 2106-2019) we come up with 36 and 40 matches respectively.

When the 4 RC unions exchange 1 of their T1 matches for a T2 match that would also leave 4 6N teams with a slot to tour a T2 nation. That's 8 additional matches each year.
So I reckon 2 teams will do an American tour with a match in Argentina and 2 against the best 2 of the region.
1 Team will still do a Japan tour and 3 will visit the remaining RC nations. My reckoning is also that 2 of these 4 will visit a T2 European nation while the other 2 make a stop on the Islands.
With the emphasis on using world rankings while determining inclusion in the schedule at the time the hosting T2 nations should be the 2 best qualified of each region.

As for the visiting teams it should be the best ranked teams. In July Japan and American teams should be excluded. They already have 2 T1 fixtures and at home at that.

Which gives me as a possible schedule (14 + 7 = 21 matches):
Image

Or for a post RWC year, given that it will only have 2 weekends in July (4 + 7 = 11 matches):
Image

Checking the numbers:
The last 2 RWC cycles we saw 76 matches between T1 and T2.
The above schedule gives us 11 (post RWC) + 21 + 21 + 0 in a RWC year = 53 matches per cycle.
2 Times 53 is 106 matches (approx. 110) which is 39% more than 76.
I guess that makes my above guesses fairly educated.

I'd say: look up your favorite team and decide if you like what's in it for you and if you like how the calendar might look like.
Remember that I left out possible Tier2 vs Tier2 matches and Tier2 vs Tier3 possibilities.

I hope World Rugby will be very strict about giving 'opportunities based on ranking at the time' and use the rankings at a certain date (e.g. January 1st of the year in question). That will bring extra incentive to being in the region's top 2. And some nations are close together. Romania-Spain-Russia, Tonga-Samoa, Uruguay-Canada.
Furthermore it should be a challenge to be in the top 16. The likes of USA, Romania, Uruguay, Spain should really challenge the PI's to steel that T1 November and July tests from them.
But now I start speculating based on assumptions. :roll:

Do I still need to be sceptical?
If it turns out to be like I have guessed, then with current rankings, still 60% of all the matches concerned will be with Japan and the PI's, with all the withcoming advantages for them.

So, is anything changing for the better?
Unlikely in the short term. But within WR's possibilities there is possibly little more they can do.
The positive thing though is that it is in the tier2's own hands to enlarge their possibilities.

Personally I just have to trust that the professional structures that are developing here and there will improve the rankings of the emerging nations and make the balance shift rather sooner than later.
Because if you ask me, the future of global rugby should not be on some tiny islands somewhere in the Pacific.

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Re: World Rugby announces historic agreement on long-term ca

Postby Silver Fox » Sun, 10 Jun 2018, 13:05

I know it is still way beyond the horizon and incredibly premature but with the June tests going on I can't help watching the World Rugby rankings with the post World Cup T2 schedules in mind.
Knowing that the rankings will be decisive in who gets T1 tests post RWC2019 the results of T2 tests will gain in significance.
After this June there will be only one November series, one more regional championship, one June series and of course the World Cup itself to gain ranking points.
Especially where interregional matches are concerned, there are not going to be more than a handfull of games left.

So, with current standings and assuming I figured out how it is going to work correctly (see my previous post), who is going to get T1 tests?
Code: Select all
JULY 2020
Oceania:        Fiji            Runners up: Tonga, Samoa
Japan:           Japan
Europe:         Georgia      Runners up: Romania, Russia
Americas:      USA           Runners up: Uruguay, Canada

NOVEMBER 2020
Fiji, Japan, Georgia, Tonga, USA, Samoa      Runners up: Romania, Uruguay

In 2021 there will be more opportunities for T1 tests in July but eitherway it will be interesting to see if any of these teams succeed in securing these opportunities.
Can Samoa overtake Tonga?
Can Russia take Romania's position?
Will Canada bounce back to become America's number two again?
And internationally: Will Romania or Uruguay be able to overtake Samoa or even Tonga to gain a November T1 test?

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