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2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby RugbyLiebe » Tue, 21 Mar 2017, 15:27

Raven wrote:
RugbyLiebe wrote:Also we know now for sure that one top20 team won't qualify for the world cup as Europe is one place short with Romania, Spain and Russia in the top20.


That is based on current rankings though, and Nr 21 and 22 are Uruguay and Canada, who might end up their RWC run in front of Spain and Russia unless one of these 2 end up qualifying through the Repechage.

Europe could have been given an extra play off place, that we can agree on, perhaps against Africa 2 or Americas 3 to make it to Repechage.


True, but only the fact that you actually do have a draw about the current ranking and you know that one of the best teams at the time of this draw will have no chance to qualify ist kind of ridiculous. Understandable and could happen if you want to have teams from everywhere involved. But still ridiculous because of the timing.
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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby NaBUru38 » Tue, 21 Mar 2017, 17:12

thatrugbyguy wrote:
Raven wrote: in my opinion the 4 SH teams should fall in different groups...


You can't merely have the RC teams in different groups just because of who they are, otherwise there's no point in having rankings. If the Boks and Pumas wanted to avoid being grouped with the All Blacks they should have put in better on field performances.


I agree with Raven. It's stupid to have a World Cup where a group has two Sanzaar teams and one group has three Six Nations teams? The point of a World Cup is North vs South matches and tier 1 vs tier 2 matches.

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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby sk 88 » Tue, 21 Mar 2017, 18:39

Wendigo7 wrote:
sk 88 wrote:
thatrugbyguy wrote:Not gonna lie, New Zealand, South Africa and Argentina in the one pool would make things very, very interesting. Throw in an inform Fiji and possibly Tonga from the 5th pot and that pool would be the toughest in RWC history. Best case scenario for Japan is to be grouped with Wales and Ireland, that's their best shot at reaching the QF's. That's of course not taking into account other spoilers in the 4th bracket. If Samoa turns up in form then that's another hazardous pool. If Georgia are to have any chance of progression they need to be pooled with either Wales or Scotland.



To be honest I think any of the "5 nations" are capable of blowing up and chocking a RWC game with Japan in Japan. Best chance is actually to draw NZ in top tier so they don't get caught as the third side in a split group again. NZ will march to QFs leaving a straight play off between 2&3, providing they see off the two other teams.

Who do you mean by 5 nations?

I can't see any of the sides struggling against Japan, save Italy.

Looking forward to the draw though, maybe it could be a bit more kind to us this time :(.



The old 5 nations, home nations + France.

Did you forget this game?

http://www.espn.co.uk/rugby/match?gameId=282895&league=282881

Or this one:

http://www.espn.co.uk/rugby/match?gameId=283445&league=283369


Home RWC, with Japan likely getting the marginal calls that currently favour the old guard, I can see these results swinging by a score.

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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby sk 88 » Tue, 21 Mar 2017, 18:55

Figaro wrote:
Thomas wrote:The Fallacy is that the draw is 1 Year ahead of schedule, it should have been done like the Women's much closer to the World Cup.

Further Nations like Argentina or South Africa can only blame themselves of their current predicament.

Too much is being made of this draw once is made we can see the Pro's and Con's of the groupings. From a S & C perspective is manna from heaven as I can create a new Macrocyle and adjust the programs accordingly.


Actually, certain teams (specifically Argentina and Italy) are disadvantaged in the rankings, because the nature of the competitions they play in (RC and 6N respectively) means they play a lot of games against superior teams, therefore losing a lot of games, which depresses their ranking.

Similarly, other sides (Georgia is the best example) play in competitions where they are the strongest side, which means they win a lot of games, which gives them a small rankings boost.

Italy are currently ranked below Georgia, Japan and Fiji. Whilst I do think any of those teams would give Italy a run for their money, I'm not sure I'd say it's quite accurate that they be below those three.

This isn't to say that they would not want to take part in such competiitons, nor that Georgia wouldn't jump at the chance to join a T1 competition. But it does have a certain effect on their ranking positions. What I'm basically saying is that you probably can't really blame Argentina for happening to be 9th.



Georgia are/were so far ahead of the other teams in the rankings they actually couldn't gain any points in this REC.

Italy lost their last game v Japan and Fiji, both 2014. They've not played Georgia since 2003. If we can't say a side is below a team that they've lost their most recent match with then when can we say it?

Georgia are ahead of Italy principally because of their good results v the Pacific Islands where they are undefeated in 5 games since 2015 versus Italy only winning 2 of their last 5 games against the trio since 2013.

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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby victorsra » Tue, 21 Mar 2017, 19:07

I believe there isn't a "pot 5". All 8 regional representatives will be on "pot 4". This means there can be Fiji and Samoa in the same group, for exemple.

In fact we can see a group with New Zealand, South Africa, Argentina, Fiji and Samoa.
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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby Natal » Tue, 21 Mar 2017, 20:19

Source? If this is true, then it is a big change from the last World Cup.

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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby victorsra » Tue, 21 Mar 2017, 21:35

I belive I read somewhere there are only 4 pots. However, I can't find now any info about the "other pots". There isn't a place saying there will be 5 pots either.
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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby fridge46 » Tue, 21 Mar 2017, 21:43

5 pots

http://www.rugbyworldcup.com/news/218568?lang=en

The 12 directly qualified teams will be allocated into the top three bands as follows:
Band 1: The four highest-ranked directly qualified teams (1-4 in World Rugby Rankings)
Band 2: The next four highest-ranked directly qualified teams (5-8 in World Rugby Rankings)
Band 3: The final four directly qualified teams

The eight qualifying places will be allocated into the other two bands.

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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby victorsra » Tue, 21 Mar 2017, 22:30

And who will be in pot 4?
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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby thatrugbyguy » Tue, 21 Mar 2017, 22:52

Raven wrote:
thatrugbyguy wrote:
Raven wrote:
Rules are clear from the beginning but this scenario is indeed possible and in my personal opinion is rubbish. The draw is still being made way too much in advance, in my opinion it should be done after the November tests of 2018, then there would be 4 November windows + 3 June windows + 3 6 Nations / REC and 3 RCh... (now it´s 2 November series, 2 June series + 2 6N / REC and only ONE RCh)

Pool A has only 1 team that made it to QFs in the last RWC, and 4 teams kicked out in the Pool stage. Plus it is the same Pool they had last time only swapping Ireland for England.
Pool B has the champion, 3rd and 4th team in the last RWC.
Pool C has 2 teams kicked out in QFs in 2015.
Pool D has the runner up, a quarter finalist...

This is clearly what the NH hopes for... in my opinion the 4 SH teams should fall in different groups...


You can't merely have the RC teams in different groups just because of who they are, otherwise there's no point in having rankings. If the Boks and Pumas wanted to avoid being grouped with the All Blacks they should have put in better on field performances. The timing I do agree with. A lot can change between May 2017 and Sept 2019.


It´s not of who they are, but you can say it´s because of how they finished last World Cup and primarily the fact that I think it´s ridiculous to take a risk of having 3 of the 4 strongest SH (or yet alone, WR) teams together, mind you also maybe the ONLY SH representatives. By no means I am saying that Boks and Pumas SHOULD be helped to avoid the All Blacks or another tough opponent in a group stage nor I am suggesting they should be seeded as top of the group either. Argentina had the ABs in 2015 and no one said nothing about that, you wanna be champions you gotta beat them too. But at the same time, we know that only 2 teams make it out of the group and like this we won´t be seeing many North v South encounters in Quarters, so what´s the point of a World Cup then?.

I can´t imagine FIFA allowing Argentina, Colombia and Uruguay sharing the same group basing ourselves in the current Ranking.

This would be in short what I am trying to suggest:

Pool A: All Blacks - X - X - X - X
Pool B: X - Springboks - X - X - X
Pool C: X - X - Argentina - X - X
Pool D: Australia - X - X - X - X


the problem is you're basing this on reputation not recent performance. South Africa has slowly become a shadow of its former self, you're eliminating them from being placed in the toughest possible group because of their name, not because of any sort of merit. It's not the rankings job to provide safe passage for teams, if teams want to avoid tough groups they have work for it. What you're proposing is based on where the world standings were 2 years ago, not where they are now. I'd argue even though South Africa finished third the cracks in their armour started months before losing to Argentina, followed by Japan and Italy, as well a string of 8 defeats last year. South Africa as it stands have no place being gifted favourable draws. as for the whole North v South thing, this is an arbitrary reason for spliting them up I because you potentially get lopsided pools like what happens with FIFA when they arbitrarily ensure teams from the same region aren't in the same group. I'm am dead against Rugby having the same type of guidelines for it's World Cup.

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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby snapper37 » Wed, 22 Mar 2017, 04:10

RugbyPUBtbilisi wrote:So 6N, RC, REC is over and in there must be a Draw for 2019 RWC in Japan on 10th May.
There will be a Group of death when Argentina enters in any group

1st Basket:
New Zealand
England
Australia
Ireland

2nd Basket:
France
Wales
Scotland
South Africa

3'd Basket:
Argentina
Japan
Georgia
Italy

4th Basket:
Europe 1 - Romania (For Sure)
Americas 1 - (USA/Canada)
Oceania 1 - Fiji
Oceania 2 - Samoa

5th Basket:
Africa 1 - Namibia
Europe2/Oceania3 - Tonga (for Sure)
Americas 2 - USA/Canada
Repechage winner:
Europe 2 - Spain/Russia
Africa 2 - Kenya
Asia 1 - Hong Kong
Americas 3 - Uruguay


So it could look something like this

Pool A
Nz
France
Argentina
Fiji
Canada

Pool B
England
Wales
Japan
Samoa
Tonga

Pool C
Australia
Scotland
Georgia
USA
Namibia

Pool D
Ireland
South Africa
Italy
Romania
Uruguay/Russia


Any possible combinations but the worst would be all the strongest teams in each band landing in one pool.

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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby RugbyPUBtbilisi » Wed, 22 Mar 2017, 08:03

Possible "death pool":
1 - New Zealand
2 - France
3 - Argentina
4 - Fiji
5 - Tonga

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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby thatrugbyguy » Wed, 22 Mar 2017, 08:08

That might be the ugliest looking pool in the history of the world cup. What's even more ugly is the possibility exists for the All Blacks to not qualify for the quarterfinals.

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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby RugbyLiebe » Wed, 22 Mar 2017, 08:14

Raven wrote:I can´t imagine FIFA allowing Argentina, Colombia and Uruguay sharing the same group basing ourselves in the current Ranking.


FIFA has group of 4 teams and yes they have the rules that only one team per continental federation is allowed per group (apart from Europe where two teams are allowed).

2014 it was
band1: the best 7 teams of the ranking + the host
band2: all African teams + 2 South America
band3: Asia + North America + Caribbean
band4: 9 European teams - one team is drawn to go into band2

Than the 4 SA teams from band1 build band1.5 and one ove them plays the European team in band2.

Sometimes it is good to see that not only rugby can be complicated.

:D

So if a take this model up to rugby, you have this basic scenario.
6 6N teams
4 RC teams
10 rest

So the option would be if you follow a regional model:
band1: best 4 6N teams
band2: 4 RC
band3: worst 2 6N teams + best 2 ranked teams from the outside
band4: next best 4 teams
band5: next best 4 teams

This could actually easily lead to a group with 4 Euro teams. Or 4 Oceania teams for that matter. If you want to avoid this scenarios you have to install some "stoppers" which would further complicate things and probably make an early draw impossible (that could be a good thing ;-) )
Overall I think it would make things not really better but even more complicated.
How to grow rugby worldwide?
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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby Figaro » Wed, 22 Mar 2017, 09:08

thatrugbyguy wrote:That might be the ugliest looking pool in the history of the world cup. What's even more ugly is the possibility exists for the All Blacks to not qualify for the quarterfinals.


I would say that England and Wales in 2015 were much better than France and Argentina are today (though things might be different in 2015). And if I were a Kiwi at the moment I wouldn't be remotely afraid of a group with France and Argentina! Depends on your definition of group of death I suppose - is it the one with the best teams from each pool, or the most competitive group? England/Australia/Wales was terrifying because it was so unpredictable, not necessarily because they were the strongest teams in the competition.

I don't see too much of a problem with the NH teams / 6N teams ending up in the same groups. After all, in 2015 we had France/Ireland/Italy in one group, and New Zealand/Argentina in another, but I don't remember people complaining at the time.

I agree that the highlight of the WC for me is seeing the T2s taken seriously, but this happens whether or not the 6N teams have to play each other in a group. Romania and Canada got to play Ireland, France and Italy; Georgia got to play Argentina and New Zealand. Would really have been massively better to see Argentina and France swapped round?

The RC/6N matchups happen all the time in the Autumn and Summer internationals anyway (e.g. in 2016 Wales played 5 games against RC sides, just as many as they played in the 6N).

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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby thatrugbyguy » Wed, 22 Mar 2017, 09:36

There's another questions that we need to start asking - who should Japan play in the opening game? Common sense says it should be whoever the highest ranked team is in their pool, however there may be value in Japan taking on a lower ranked team first up so they can get the win and build momentum for the following 3 weekends. Keep in mind Japan is going to be afforded as hosts the luxury of having 6-7 day breaks this time around, a rarity for a non-T1 nation.

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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby Neptune » Wed, 22 Mar 2017, 10:03

thatrugbyguy wrote:There's another questions that we need to start asking - who should Japan play in the opening game? Common sense says it should be whoever the highest ranked team is in their pool, however there may be value in Japan taking on a lower ranked team first up so they can get the win and build momentum for the following 3 weekends. Keep in mind Japan is going to be afforded as hosts the luxury of having 6-7 day breaks this time around, a rarity for a non-T1 nation.


It will be preferable for them to play a lower ranked team, hence could easily win and encourage more spectators to the stadiums. If they start with a loss, most people will feel discouraged from going to the stadium.

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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby Figaro » Wed, 22 Mar 2017, 11:32

Neptune wrote:
thatrugbyguy wrote:There's another questions that we need to start asking - who should Japan play in the opening game? Common sense says it should be whoever the highest ranked team is in their pool, however there may be value in Japan taking on a lower ranked team first up so they can get the win and build momentum for the following 3 weekends. Keep in mind Japan is going to be afforded as hosts the luxury of having 6-7 day breaks this time around, a rarity for a non-T1 nation.


It will be preferable for them to play a lower ranked team, hence could easily win and encourage more spectators to the stadiums. If they start with a loss, most people will feel discouraged from going to the stadium.


Didn't England kick off 2015 against Fiji? In which case there's definitely precedent of matching the hosts up against a "lower" ranked team.

Obviously it depends on who's in their group, but I think the USA would be the ideal first opponent for Japan. You'd ideally want them to face a side that 1) they're likely to beat, 2) that is a big market and a well-known country, to increase the spectacle (especially thinking of the non-Rugby fans likely to be tuning in). The only other options are either likely to beat Japan (6N / RC), or less-known and small markets (PIs). Canada would probably be 2nd choice; obviously it depends on who's in the group of course.

Alternatively, if it's going to be a traditional Rugby power, the All Blacks. Start the competition with the Haka!

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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby Thomas » Wed, 22 Mar 2017, 13:59

2003 Australia Played Argentina in the opening Match and won 24-8
2007 France Played Argentina in the opening match at the time they lost 17-12 to Argentina who were the lower ranked team, it was considered a huge upset at the time time when Argentina Won
2011 NZ played Tonga and won 41 - 10

so that is the recent precedent of playing against Lower ranked teams.

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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby RugbyLiebe » Wed, 22 Mar 2017, 14:57

Figaro wrote:Obviously it depends on who's in their group, but I think the USA would be the ideal first opponent for Japan. You'd ideally want them to face a side that 1) they're likely to beat, 2) that is a big market and a well-known country, to increase the spectacle (especially thinking of the non-Rugby fans likely to be tuning in).


Sounds good but the USA is between 13 (New York) and 16 hours (LA) behind Tokyo. Will be tough to get many people on the TV for that. London is 9 hours behind so an evening kickoff at 9pm Tokyo time against a Home Nation would make a great saturday (?) lunch-kickoff.
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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby BigG » Wed, 22 Mar 2017, 16:52

Do you remember soccer WC in 2002? You should.
Some games may start at 6-7 AM by CET. Is that OK? We can do nothing with that. Geography matters.

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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby BertSolomon » Wed, 22 Mar 2017, 18:21

Neptune wrote:It will be preferable for them to play a lower ranked team, hence could easily win and encourage more spectators to the stadiums. If they start with a loss, most people will feel discouraged from going to the stadium.


It is madness that Japan are not in the top seeds. They could lose their first two games, and be out with a month of the tournament left.

FIFA always seeds the hosts, recognising that for a successful competition, the hosts need to be involved as long as possible.

Rugby came to the WC party much later than football but that's no excuse for the mistakes they still make.

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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby carbonero » Wed, 22 Mar 2017, 18:30

Thomas wrote:2007 France Played Argentina in the opening match at the time they lost 17-12 to Argentina who were the lower ranked team, it was considered a huge upset at the time time when Argentina Won

It wasn't that big of an upset. Argentina was ranked 6th before the 2007 RWC. Just ten months before, they lost 27-28 in the Stade de France. They also beat England in Twickenham on that same tour.

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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby Armchair Fan » Wed, 22 Mar 2017, 19:56

And had drawn against the Lions two years earlier.

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Re: 2019 RWC Draw: 10 May 2017 Kyoto, Japan

Postby Thomas » Wed, 22 Mar 2017, 21:18

carbonero wrote:
Thomas wrote:2007 France Played Argentina in the opening match at the time they lost 17-12 to Argentina who were the lower ranked team, it was considered a huge upset at the time time when Argentina Won

It wasn't that big of an upset. Argentina was ranked 6th before the 2007 RWC. Just ten months before, they lost 27-28 in the Stade de France. They also beat England in Twickenham on that same tour.


This is true and I would say that this was the beginning of Argentina's ascendancy in RWC performances, in 2003 and 1999 they lost both their initial group matches and set the tone for their performance.

Back to the topic at hand, if I was Japan I would want a lower ranked team and none of the big boys for the initial match.

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