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Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby Neptune » Wed, 06 Jun 2018, 11:53

thatrugbyguy wrote:
Osmanperalta wrote:i dont know even if by miracle they beat Namibia i have the feeling that somehow they will find a way to fuck up or do the "big spain" if they have to lose against the weaker team they will do, to not go to the world cup


Last years Gold Cup produced some really crazy results across the board. Namibia came out in front but the rest of the games were all over the place. Kenya beat Tunisia by a 100 points, whilst Zimbabwe lost to them by 7. Then Zimbabwe were close to beating Namibia whilst losing heavily to Kenya, who were subsequently thrashed by Namibia and drew with Uganda, and then Uganda beat Zimbabwe.


That is Africa for you :lol: :lol:

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby Tomster7uk » Sat, 09 Jun 2018, 14:23

What is everyone thinking the top two will be from this years Africa Cup? Do you think there is a shock on the cards? I'd love one of the lesser teams to grab the world cup automatic spot just for the underdog story.

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby Neptune » Sun, 10 Jun 2018, 02:27

The best story would be Namibia going to the repechage, now thats a killer story. :P

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby Tomster7uk » Mon, 11 Jun 2018, 15:31

I would rather want the like of Tunisia to win it seeing as they have never played in a World Cup Finals....that would be a true underdog story.

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby suofficer » Mon, 11 Jun 2018, 15:39

think it would be awesome if Tunisia made it , is it fair to say they're majority based in France?

Namibia got beat in Lisbon 29 - 20 in 2014 when they came on Tour before the RWC. They're a good side, but they have it too easy.

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby Tomster7uk » Mon, 11 Jun 2018, 16:35

I am unsure of the majority based but after a little research I have found that one does, I have just taken a look on their Wiki page. Unfortunately most of them don't have pages on Wiki. I assume because Tunisia has a French background after becoming independent from France back in 1956 that they would play in France as it'd be easier for communications.

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby qwerty » Mon, 11 Jun 2018, 17:46

There must be a lot of professionals in France eligible for Tunisia (and many other African countries).

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby Tomster7uk » Mon, 11 Jun 2018, 20:48

qwerty wrote:There must be a lot of professionals in France eligible for Tunisia (and many other African countries).


Yes you would think so through ancestry and so on. I don't know if it is the same as football (soccer) where if you have already played for a national side in a competitive match that, you are prohibited to play for a different national side in rugby. I would think this law would block the majority or minority that could potentially be eligible for Tunisia.

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby vino_93 » Mon, 11 Jun 2018, 21:34

Yes, there are many tunisians, morocans and algerians eligible in France. They can become the French's Samoa or Tonga in a few years if they can expand a bit home.

Nowadays most of the squads are amateurs players, but a few pros are in. Let's wait and see !

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby qwerty » Tue, 12 Jun 2018, 03:02

Tomster7uk wrote:
qwerty wrote:There must be a lot of professionals in France eligible for Tunisia (and many other African countries).


Yes you would think so through ancestry and so on. I don't know if it is the same as football (soccer) where if you have already played for a national side in a competitive match that, you are prohibited to play for a different national side in rugby. I would think this law would block the majority or minority that could potentially be eligible for Tunisia.


I'm not even talking about the top players that play for, or have a couple caps for France, but even D2 players. A team made up mostly of D2 players would probably beat Namibia.

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby Figaro » Tue, 12 Jun 2018, 11:46

Tomster7uk wrote:
qwerty wrote:There must be a lot of professionals in France eligible for Tunisia (and many other African countries).


Yes you would think so through ancestry and so on. I don't know if it is the same as football (soccer) where if you have already played for a national side in a competitive match that, you are prohibited to play for a different national side in rugby. I would think this law would block the majority or minority that could potentially be eligible for Tunisia.


It is absolutely the same as in football as you describe. Furthermore, you can be "locked" to representing a particular nation even if you don't play for their senior side, for example by representing the country in Rugby 7s, or in designated national "B" sides like the Irish Wolfhounds, England Saxons etc.

There is a bigger disincentive for players to play for minor nations that they qualify for through ancestry though, namely, incentives/limits imposed by domestic competitions. For example, the RFU rewards English Premiership (and possibly Championship) clubs for playing X number of English-qualified players over the course of a season. If an English-based player is eligible for e.g. Norway via a grandparent, if he then shows up for Norway he will effectively be considered a 'foreigner' from the English competition's point of view. If he is good enough it wouldn't matter as he will still be picked anyway, but if not he may well find English-qualified rivals preferred by the club who will want to keep their % of English players in squads high. This makes it advantageous to a professional player at an English premiership club to remain eligible for England, even if he has no realistic chance of ever playing for the English national side. The advantage might be outweighed if compared to playing for a wealthy foreign side (e.g. Wales), but in the case of Norway, the player would probably have to pay for their own flights to attend the games and certainly wouldn't make any money out of it. If you are a player on the pro/amateur fringe it just isn't worth the risk to your professional career.

I'm not sure how the rules compare in other leagues - I think the French leagues are a little more relaxed about foreign players - but certainly the 4x Pro12 unions either incentivise their sides to play native players (the Welsh regions, Benetton) or preferentially recruit natives - or those who might become natives - in the first place (Zebre, the Irish and Scottish sides). I imagine Super Rugby is the same.

As a result there are probably dozens of semi-pro players in the French, English and other systems eligible for T2 and T3 sides who will not play for them, not necessarily because they have no interest in doing so, but because it woudl be a bad career move.

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby vino_93 » Tue, 12 Jun 2018, 12:25

In France what matters is where you played youths games (at minus 3 years in France between 16 to 21, or 5 under 16), not for who you play senior. So for example, Julien Bardy who is Portuguese international is still JIFF, whereas Scott Spedding who is French international is not.

Edit : interesting datas about JIFF numbers : during 17-18, 293 JIFF players has been used, against 196 non JIFF.
The JIFF law is starting to work. Neo-pro have played 24% more than last year.

Édit : more about regulations and datas :
https://www.allrugby.com/dossiers/jiff-top14.html
https://www.allrugby.com/dossiers/jiff-prod2.html

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby Tomster7uk » Tue, 12 Jun 2018, 12:46

Figaro wrote:
Tomster7uk wrote:
qwerty wrote:There must be a lot of professionals in France eligible for Tunisia (and many other African countries).


Yes you would think so through ancestry and so on. I don't know if it is the same as football (soccer) where if you have already played for a national side in a competitive match that, you are prohibited to play for a different national side in rugby. I would think this law would block the majority or minority that could potentially be eligible for Tunisia.


It is absolutely the same as in football as you describe. Furthermore, you can be "locked" to representing a particular nation even if you don't play for their senior side, for example by representing the country in Rugby 7s, or in designated national "B" sides like the Irish Wolfhounds, England Saxons etc.

There is a bigger disincentive for players to play for minor nations that they qualify for through ancestry though, namely, incentives/limits imposed by domestic competitions. For example, the RFU rewards English Premiership (and possibly Championship) clubs for playing X number of English-qualified players over the course of a season. If an English-based player is eligible for e.g. Norway via a grandparent, if he then shows up for Norway he will effectively be considered a 'foreigner' from the English competition's point of view. If he is good enough it wouldn't matter as he will still be picked anyway, but if not he may well find English-qualified rivals preferred by the club who will want to keep their % of English players in squads high. This makes it advantageous to a professional player at an English premiership club to remain eligible for England, even if he has no realistic chance of ever playing for the English national side. The advantage might be outweighed if compared to playing for a wealthy foreign side (e.g. Wales), but in the case of Norway, the player would probably have to pay for their own flights to attend the games and certainly wouldn't make any money out of it. If you are a player on the pro/amateur fringe it just isn't worth the risk to your professional career.

I'm not sure how the rules compare in other leagues - I think the French leagues are a little more relaxed about foreign players - but certainly the 4x Pro12 unions either incentivise their sides to play native players (the Welsh regions, Benetton) or preferentially recruit natives - or those who might become natives - in the first place (Zebre, the Irish and Scottish sides). I imagine Super Rugby is the same.

As a result there are probably dozens of semi-pro players in the French, English and other systems eligible for T2 and T3 sides who will not play for them, not necessarily because they have no interest in doing so, but because it woudl be a bad career move.



That sounds rather quite unfair for some whom would actually want to play for their country but yes, they would potentially be risking professional careers. Surely WR could do something so they could do both?

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby Blurandski » Tue, 12 Jun 2018, 12:57

Tomster7uk wrote:That sounds rather quite unfair for some whom would actually want to play for their country but yes, they would potentially be risking professional careers. Surely WR could do something so they could do both?


They can't really, for ultimately unions need a way to make sure that 60% of their competition is eligible for the NT, and WR needs credibly NT eligibility laws (i.e. people can only play for one country). However, the EQP system only exists in the English Premiership, so the Championship and Nat1 have quite a few European-heritage players.

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby sk 88 » Sun, 17 Jun 2018, 12:04

EQP is actually higher in the championship, I think its 17/23 rather than 15/23, and it is certainly a greater proportion of your revenue. I think the EQP bung to the Prem is worth c.£400k per team? Compared to £5m of other central revenues. Whereas in the Championship it is £300k of a possible £500k.

In football you are only locked in if you play a competitive game such as a qualifier for a World Cup or continental championship. Wilfred Zaha played for England before switching to Ivory Coast.

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby Neptune » Sun, 17 Jun 2018, 16:14

The shortlist for teams making it to the repechege is now out. Portugal has now been for sure crossed out. In Africa, im now doubting the capabilities of Kenya or Zimbabwe making it. Ill just leave it open for now, but the closest probability would be Canada, Hong Kong and Germany. Still not too sure about Africa, its a real jungle out there :lol:. Anyway, may the best team win. :)

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby Tomster7uk » Sun, 17 Jun 2018, 23:46

The jungle joke was genius.

I'd expect there to be a twist and a surprise in qualifying...Nothing is ever as straight forward as we think it is. Cook Island may pull off a huge shock in the Asia/Oceania repechage play off match.

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby YamahaKiwi » Mon, 18 Jun 2018, 08:10

I very much doubt it after watching HKG dispatch South Korea. I doubt Cook Island will be better than the Koreans for a start. Maybe the Cook's home game will be semi competitive but I suspect HKG will win large in HKG. I suspect the Cooks are somewhere between S.Korea and Malaysia.

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby RugbyLiebe » Mon, 18 Jun 2018, 08:13

YamahaKiwi wrote:I very much doubt it after watching HKG dispatch South Korea. I doubt Cook Island will be better than the Koreans for a start. Maybe the Cook's home game will be semi competitive but I suspect HKG will win large in HKG. I suspect the Cooks are somewhere between S.Korea and Malaysia.


I would bet some money, that all those Kiwis and Ozzies now floating in for this game would make them a little better than most Asian sides. I'm not sure if better than HK.
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Look at the world ranking in July. Teams ranked 1-10 have to play one team from 11-20 (they don't play in a regular competition) away the next year. 11-20 play 21-30 away and so on. Yes, it really is that simple.

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby YamahaKiwi » Mon, 18 Jun 2018, 08:22

I was pretty impressed by HKG in that last game v S Korea. It effectively was all over about 25mins. HKG is showing the benefits of being in a pro full-time training set-up (Something Canada doesn't have). Even with a few Kiwis or Aussie domiciled players coming into the Cooks squad, I'd expect HKG to have a big advantage in player combinations. That HKG team looked the best conditioned I've seen and they were aggressive and physical with the Koreans who are usually pretty physical themselves. The way Canada is going (and seeing Russia beat them, who HKG have played a few times in recent years), HKG could well fancy their chances for this repechage.

As for the venue, I can't see why they don't play in Japan. Given both Australia and NZ will be up there late October and early November, and Japan is also playing a game the day before the NZ v AUS test they would be great to do as a double or triple billing. Infact they would be great as curtainraisers to that Japan game in Osaka.

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby ARHS » Tue, 26 Jun 2018, 02:24

Just posted on Cook Islands facebook - squad v Hong Kong.
SQUAD ANNOUNCEMENT:
The Cook Islands Rugby Union in conjunction with team management are pleased to announce the Cook Islands National Mens 15’s team for the upcoming Rugby World Cup 2019 qualifying home and away test series to commence this Saturday 30 June 2018 in Rarotonga. The team will then travel to Hong Kong for the second test match to be played on Saturday 7 July 2018. The National mens coach Stan Wright & team management Andrew Walker, Andrew Iroa & Kevin Iro have worked hard to assemble this 27 man squad as listed below. We are also excited to announce Otago ITM Cup team Captain Sam Anderson-Heather as the new National Mens 15’s Team Captain.
Forwards:
Prop - AJ Campbell. James Pakoti, Tuakana Paitai, Alex Matapo Hooker: Sam Anderson-Heather (Captain), Matthew Mullany Lock / Flanker: James Kora, Shahn Eru, Tokerau Raru, Robert Heather, Te Eru Wano, Tyrone Viiga, Tai Marsters, Tamanui Nicholas Backs: Halves: Othniel Joseph, Reece Joyce, Te Ara Henderson, Corry Tearoa, Walter Koteka Centres & Outside Backs: Gene Te Amo, Jamian Iroa, Greg Mullany, Josh Tinomana, Brynn Uriarau, Marnus Hanley, Matamanea Matapakia, Oisin Clarken

To me the notable inclusions are Sam Anderson-Heather, Shahn Eru and Marnus Hanley. But, more notable are the exclusions: Alex Woonton, Francis Smith, Stephen Setephano, Josh Gordon, Elijah Nicholas. Could be a tough ask v Hong Kong, but they will give it their all.

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby YamahaKiwi » Tue, 26 Jun 2018, 02:59

With more and more countries creating HP setups the days of cherry picking a few high club level/Heartland/ITM etc Kiwis and Aussies and watching them upset the applecart or give a serious challenge to the opposition is over. If this was happening 10-15 years ago then it would've probably been a more competitive match up. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that HKG will be significantly better conditioned and that will probably make itself seen in particular in the return game and will exacerbate Cook Island's struggles in that game. They'll probably give it everything in the first game and I suspect have almost nothing left in the tank for game 2 only a week later. It's also worth noting HKG have been here before, when travelling to Uruguay for a RWC playoff game and I'm sure they will have learnt quite a bit from that experience. I'm looking at a 15-35 point HKG win in Rarotonga, and a 30-55 point win back in HKG.

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby Neptune » Sat, 30 Jun 2018, 19:28

Things are now starting to shape up. Honestly speaking, I don't see Germany coming back from a 66 - 15 defeat. So, I can confidently say that we already have Canada and Germany in the repechage. Just awaiting two more teams from Africa and Asia respectively, but the likelihood looks like Hong Kong and Kenya set to join them. All the best to all the teams. ;)

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby Brigantine » Sun, 01 Jul 2018, 05:35

Neptune wrote:The best story would be Namibia going to the repechage, now thats a killer story. :P

How about South Africa, Namibia and Kenya all in the same RWC Pool? That could easily happen.


Alternatively - since they made a big deal last RWC about how Namibia got their first ever RWC table point...

Whoever qualifies, there will be a RWC match between Africa 1 and the Repechage Qualifier. If that ends up being Kenya vs Hong Kong or something... one of them has to win that game. Out of all the candidates (not counting Samoa), only Canada has ever won a RWC game before.

Canada's chance atm of winning that game is only 22%, so the odds of an underdog making history are good.

- Namibia 40%
- Hong Kong 26%
- Kenya 9.0%
- Germany 3.0%
- Uganda 0.0% (2 out of 10,000 simulations)

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Re: Possible Repechege teams for the 2019 RWC

Postby FLIDTA RISXVA » Sun, 01 Jul 2018, 06:52

Namibia got their first ever RWC table point...

... in 2015, vs Georgia, thanx to Irish REF

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