Tier 2 & 3 Rugby Forum

Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby qwerty » Tue, 02 Oct 2018, 14:26

4N wrote:
RugbyLiebe wrote:But I'm really curious to hear why you would bet on on Poland.


Fan interest in domestic & club rugby + improving domestic player pool and large population with relatively little competition for athletes (eg sports like ice hockey, handball not that popular) + large diaspora pool + union not resistant to professionalism.


Plus their RET attendances are like the 3rd highest of all RE tournaments (higher than all RET, and Romania, Russia, Belgium and Germany).

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby welshdragon2000 » Tue, 02 Oct 2018, 14:39

qwerty wrote:
4N wrote:
RugbyLiebe wrote:But I'm really curious to hear why you would bet on on Poland.


Fan interest in domestic & club rugby + improving domestic player pool and large population with relatively little competition for athletes (eg sports like ice hockey, handball not that popular) + large diaspora pool + union not resistant to professionalism.


Plus their RET attendances are like the 3rd highest of all RE tournaments (higher than all RET, and Romania, Russia, Belgium and Germany).


What were their attendances like 7 or 8 years ago? When did interest in the game pick up there?

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby qwerty » Tue, 02 Oct 2018, 15:47

welshdragon2000 wrote:
qwerty wrote:
4N wrote:
RugbyLiebe wrote:But I'm really curious to hear why you would bet on on Poland.


Fan interest in domestic & club rugby + improving domestic player pool and large population with relatively little competition for athletes (eg sports like ice hockey, handball not that popular) + large diaspora pool + union not resistant to professionalism.


Plus their RET attendances are like the 3rd highest of all RE tournaments (higher than all RET, and Romania, Russia, Belgium and Germany).


What were their attendances like 7 or 8 years ago? When did interest in the game pick up there?


Around 4000 back then, so a bit lower, but similar.

Also noteworthy that back then Ukraine and Moldova did much better, Ukraine getting above 4000 for most games, and Moldova 2000-4000. Sad how they have regressed so much.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby 4N » Tue, 02 Oct 2018, 15:50

I think national team attendances have risen in the last few years, but club rugby crowds have been strong for some time (10 years or so?). It certainly helps that some of the leading teams are from multi-sport clubs who are also strong in soccer (Lechia Gdansk, Arka Gdynia). It’s also in this area of Poland, known as the Tricity, where rugby is most popular. Maybe the third or fourth most popular team sport locally.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby 4N » Tue, 02 Oct 2018, 15:55

Ukraine and Moldova ran into the same issue - after the generation born in the mid/late 1980s, youth rugby sort of died out. Aviator Kiev was a strong club in Soviet times. Polish rugby OTOH only started to boom since the new millennium. Arka Gdynia was only founded in 1996, they’re now one of the strongest in the country.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby qwerty » Tue, 02 Oct 2018, 16:13

4N wrote:Ukraine and Moldova ran into the same issue - after the generation born in the mid/late 1980s, youth rugby sort of died out. Aviator Kiev was a strong club in Soviet times. Polish rugby OTOH only started to boom since the new millennium. Arka Gdynia was only founded in 1996, they’re now one of the strongest in the country.


Aren't Odessa and Kharkiv the powerhouses of Ukrainian rugby?

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby 4N » Tue, 02 Oct 2018, 16:21

Last I heard. Not even sure what is happening with Ukrainian rugby currently.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby amz » Tue, 02 Oct 2018, 17:47

You are relying too much on U20 indicator and we saw many examples where performance at age grade levels was not carrier out at seniors.

Mind, last three rounds in Superliga saw as player of the round 22 yo fly-half Melinte (twice) and 20 yo Neculau.

As for rebuilding the Oaks, it would be a big mistake to make a swift one with introducing young players and drop all the oldies. Should be gradual and with care for the environment created in Oaks locker room.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby RugbyLiebe » Thu, 04 Oct 2018, 12:18

About Poland.

So I checked those attendances:

2014: Poland - Sweden 5000
2014: Poland - Netherlands 5000
2014: Poland - Ukraina 7500
2015: Poland - Moldavia 5500
2015: Poland - Belgium (not reported)
2016: Poland -Ukraine: 2500
2017: Poland - Netherlands 8500
2017 Poland- Switzerland (not reported)
2017: Poland - Moldovia 3000
2018: Poland - Portugal (not reported, suofficer wrote here https://www.reddit.com/r/rugbyunion/com ... o_win_the/ "not huge crowd")

They are good for a t3 team, but nothing I would call big enough to build something on (this also would go for Germany which quite similar crowds).
Also they seem to have gone down significantly (or maybe now they report the real numbers).
My guess would be that going to "real" stadiums always makes a difference - a significant difference in the RET.
7s crowds in Lodz were pityfully a joke.

What about the club attendances? Can't find a source? Nothing against Poland here, I like them to grow and it would be great if they do. But I also love to double check facts.
How to grow rugby worldwide?
Look at the world ranking in July. Teams ranked 1-10 have to play one team from 11-20 (they don't play in a regular competition) away the next year. 11-20 play 21-30 away and so on. Yes, it really is that simple.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby qwerty » Thu, 04 Oct 2018, 15:41

RugbyLiebe wrote:About Poland.

So I checked those attendances:

2014: Poland - Sweden 5000
2014: Poland - Netherlands 5000
2014: Poland - Ukraina 7500
2015: Poland - Moldavia 5500
2015: Poland - Belgium (not reported)
2016: Poland -Ukraine: 2500
2017: Poland - Netherlands 8500
2017 Poland- Switzerland (not reported)
2017: Poland - Moldovia 3000
2018: Poland - Portugal (not reported, suofficer wrote here https://www.reddit.com/r/rugbyunion/com ... o_win_the/ "not huge crowd")

They are good for a t3 team, but nothing I would call big enough to build something on (this also would go for Germany which quite similar crowds).
Also they seem to have gone down significantly (or maybe now they report the real numbers).
My guess would be that going to "real" stadiums always makes a difference - a significant difference in the RET.
7s crowds in Lodz were pityfully a joke.

What about the club attendances? Can't find a source? Nothing against Poland here, I like them to grow and it would be great if they do. But I also love to double check facts.


They play in a T3 tournament, if they were promoted and played against teams like Georgia and Romania they might get larger crowds.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby RugbyLiebe » Thu, 04 Oct 2018, 19:41

I am not so sure about it, as games against Georgia and Romania haven't exactly been blockbusters elsewhere. My bet would be that Germany might be more of interest for the rugby-uneducated sports fan. Spain and Portugal drew the biggest crowds in Germany i.e.
Anybody has a source or an estimated figure for the club attendances?
How to grow rugby worldwide?
Look at the world ranking in July. Teams ranked 1-10 have to play one team from 11-20 (they don't play in a regular competition) away the next year. 11-20 play 21-30 away and so on. Yes, it really is that simple.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby 4N » Thu, 04 Oct 2018, 21:11

Arka Gdynia’s stadium holds about 3000, they sell it out for big matches, finals etc.

I recall Lechia Gdansk playing Arka at Lechia soccer stadium a few years ago and drawing a crowd in the mid four figures, though I don’t recall the exact number. Maybe 5-6k?

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby NedRugby » Thu, 04 Oct 2018, 22:59

I'd like to think that the difference between the bottom of the REC and the RET will become a bit blurred. More of a hope than a prediction, but I think it would be great if the likes of Portugal, Switzerland, Poland and the Netherlands could catch up with Belgium and Germany.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby SallesNeto_BR » Fri, 05 Oct 2018, 05:15

I think MLR will be decisive in mid-term international rugby scenario. Betting that it'll be a sucess, we'll have some good and bad consequences.

1) a strong MLR will expand continually, probably killing the South American League by hiring their best players. On the other hand, it could help these nations sides grow fastly (and Canada, of course);

2) if the USA national side really becomes more and more popular and strong, then there'll be a possibility of a 6 Nations-expansion to include them. Who wouldn't want to access the US market? It could also draw in an expansion to 8 teams for schedule reasons, finally including some emerging European side (Georgia? Spain?);

3) if USA was in 6N, ARC will be died, because it'd be impossible to a nations-competition product keep worthy with Argentina XV, USA Selects, maybe Uruguay A... too much "B" sides;

4) if USA was out 6N, then it'll be necessary a new competition to these emerging nations sides. I'm not sure if ARC can become this great league, specially because it's not easy to figure out Argentina going out of TRC to focus on ARC. Maybe a redesigned Pacific Nations?

------

With a pro side and lots of players in WSR, Fiji will probably keep growing.

------

Georgia needs desesperately to improve its backrow or will stagnate. They are a small nation with negative demographic rates, so maybe they're currently close to their top. A pro league with Russia could help, whose I think Romania will avoid and keep the Superliga project.

------

I'm not sure about Japan. They are big, but in a terrible demographic trouble as well. I think they have a chance to become T1 if they get in TRC, because it'd spread the game even deeply among the few young public available. It's difficult to dispute with soccer, baseball and martial arts.

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African sides like Kenia or Madagascar can luckily become T2 sides if the new pro leagues in America and Asia caught lots of their players

-------

Finally, I can see lots of potential in Russia, specially if they nail their intention of creating an Eurasian league with Georgia (and even Poland, Czechia or Ukraine, if the economics and politics get better down the road). But they'll need a foreigner-players friendly rule and do need to fix the lack of international tests in bigger cities.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Working Class Rugger » Fri, 05 Oct 2018, 05:34

SallesNeto_BR wrote:I think MLR will be decisive in mid-term international rugby scenario. Betting that it'll be a sucess, we'll have some good and bad consequences.

1) a strong MLR will expand continually, probably killing the South American League by hiring their best players. On the other hand, it could help these nations sides grow fastly (and Canada, of course);

2) if the USA national side really becomes more and more popular and strong, then there'll be a possibility of a 6 Nations-expansion to include them. Who wouldn't want to access the US market? It could also draw in an expansion to 8 teams for schedule reasons, finally including some emerging European side (Georgia? Spain?);

3) if USA was in 6N, ARC will be died, because it'd be impossible to a nations-competition product keep worthy with Argentina XV, USA Selects, maybe Uruguay A... too much "B" sides;

4) if USA was out 6N, then it'll be necessary a new competition to these emerging nations sides. I'm not sure if ARC can become this great league, specially because it's not easy to figure out Argentina going out of TRC to focus on ARC. Maybe a redesigned Pacific Nations?

------

With a pro side and lots of players in WSR, Fiji will probably keep growing.

------

Georgia needs desesperately to improve its backrow or will stagnate. They are a small nation with negative demographic rates, so maybe they're currently close to their top. A pro league with Russia could help, whose I think Romania will avoid and keep the Superliga project.

------

I'm not sure about Japan. They are big, but in a terrible demographic trouble as well. I think they have a chance to become T1 if they get in TRC, because it'd spread the game even deeply among the few young public available. It's difficult to dispute with soccer, baseball and martial arts.

-------

African sides like Kenia or Madagascar can luckily become T2 sides if the new pro leagues in America and Asia caught lots of their players

-------

Finally, I can see lots of potential in Russia, specially if they nail their intention of creating an Eurasian league with Georgia (and even Poland, Czechia or Ukraine, if the economics and politics get better down the road). But they'll need a foreigner-players friendly rule and do need to fix the lack of international tests in bigger cities.


I'd suggest that the US has a far greater chance of joining TRC than the 6Ns. Look at the schedule adopted by MLR. It aligns nicely with the SH season. I actually think that if both Japan and the Eagles continue to improve and grow we'll see them added to TRC in fairly quick time.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby SallesNeto_BR » Fri, 05 Oct 2018, 05:38

I hope not, a whole-World-but-Europe competition would be truly empty of meaning

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby RugbyLiebe » Fri, 05 Oct 2018, 07:52

SallesNeto_BR wrote:
I'm not sure about Japan. They are big, but in a terrible demographic trouble as well. I think they have a chance to become T1 if they get in TRC, because it'd spread the game even deeply among the few young public available. It's difficult to dispute with soccer, baseball and martial arts.


Some perspective here:
births 2017:
Japan 940.000
Germany 784.000
England&Wales 679.106
New Zealand: 59,610
Scotland: 52.861
Brazil: 2.793.935 (2016)

So if Japan really has a problem with that, every country apart from a ascending nation like Brazil has ;-)
How to grow rugby worldwide?
Look at the world ranking in July. Teams ranked 1-10 have to play one team from 11-20 (they don't play in a regular competition) away the next year. 11-20 play 21-30 away and so on. Yes, it really is that simple.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby ihateblazers » Fri, 05 Oct 2018, 10:18

On the topic of MLR I wonder since the Top 14 and Pro D2 has stricter foreign player rules now could we see an influx of European t2/t3 players in MLR? They could certainly use some Georgian forwards in the league.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby thatrugbyguy » Fri, 05 Oct 2018, 11:57

I strongly suspect MLR is going to attract a lot more talent from the Americas than Europe. Europe really needs an equivalent league to be set up for T2/T3 players to gain opportunities.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Working Class Rugger » Fri, 05 Oct 2018, 12:05

SallesNeto_BR wrote:I hope not, a whole-World-but-Europe competition would be truly empty of meaning


Why would it be devoid of meaning?

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Working Class Rugger » Fri, 05 Oct 2018, 12:12

RugbyLiebe wrote:
SallesNeto_BR wrote:
I'm not sure about Japan. They are big, but in a terrible demographic trouble as well. I think they have a chance to become T1 if they get in TRC, because it'd spread the game even deeply among the few young public available. It's difficult to dispute with soccer, baseball and martial arts.


Some perspective here:
births 2017:
Japan 940.000
Germany 784.000
England&Wales 679.106
New Zealand: 59,610
Scotland: 52.861
Brazil: 2.793.935 (2016)

So if Japan really has a problem with that, every country apart from a ascending nation like Brazil has ;-)


Japan like a number of other developed economies suffers from an ageing population and birth rates that aren't necessary declining but failing to match the necessary rates to maintain the current population levels and more that will be required in order to appropriately cater for that ageing population and itself. Japan's situation just tends to be a little more accelerated than most. China as well. There one child policy coupled with a massively ageing population is going to pose huge challenges in the future. Sort of why both nations are particularly interested in automation.

It's why immigration is considered for the most part a net positive for a countries fortunes as it tends to refresh the younger populations.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Working Class Rugger » Fri, 05 Oct 2018, 12:13

thatrugbyguy wrote:I strongly suspect MLR is going to attract a lot more talent from the Americas than Europe. Europe really needs an equivalent league to be set up for T2/T3 players to gain opportunities.


Something like the LSR in Europe needs to be seriously looked into. Either that or look to invest in the likes of the Spanish and the mooted Dutch/Belgian leagues as a destination for talent.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Raven » Fri, 05 Oct 2018, 13:12

Right now it seems unlikely that a League can start out of nowhere, I'd say that any developing country should aim to enter the Italian-Pseudo European / 3rd tier competition (Shield) to expose their league and talent to the rugby world and then grow from there.
MLR and LSR have different objectives, the former seems as if they want to compete with Italy, Spain or even Japan as destinations, with some international flair and the latter is more a local development tool to try and narrow the gap between Argentina and the rest. Even if the likes of Chile, Brazil reach the Teros level and challenge an Americas 1 or 2 spot, it will be seen as a major success.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby thatrugbyguy » Fri, 05 Oct 2018, 14:21

Competitive Brazil and Chile would be good for the region. In Europe we need more professional clubs to emerge in T2/3 countries.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby victorsra » Fri, 05 Oct 2018, 15:47

Brazil: 2.793.935 (2016)


What is this number??
Brazilian Rugby News: www.portaldorugby.com.br

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