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Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Buffalo » Fri, 05 Oct 2018, 16:37

victorsra wrote:
Brazil: 2.793.935 (2016)


What is this number??


The amount of people born in Brazil in 2016 apparently.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby victorsra » Fri, 05 Oct 2018, 16:42

Oh ok.
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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby qwerty » Fri, 05 Oct 2018, 18:04

Malta is a country that I have observed to have significant public interest in rugby, judging by the attendance in certain Conference games (and I believe that game against Lithuania was a fluke). Maybe they could gather a semi-pro team to play in Eccelenza.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby 4N » Fri, 05 Oct 2018, 18:09

That’s an interesting suggestion. Could see them doing at least as well as Jersey (English Championship).

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby qwerty » Fri, 05 Oct 2018, 18:16

And they could definitely be more successful than their football team, which would help increase interest.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby victorsra » Fri, 05 Oct 2018, 20:37

Cool idea.

Small countries can thrive with this kind of movement.

The problem for Malta is the air travel in amateur competitions, as in the first years they would need to play minor division before going up I guess.
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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby RugbyLiebe » Mon, 08 Oct 2018, 09:10

Buffalo wrote:
victorsra wrote:
Brazil: 2.793.935 (2016)


What is this number??


The amount of people born in Brazil in 2016 apparently.


Exactly. My point was that Japan, while having problems with their shrinking society elsewhere. They still have nearly 1 million births each year, so no they won't struggle to have enough players (at least not because of a falling birthrate).
How to grow rugby worldwide?
Look at the world ranking in July. Teams ranked 1-10 have to play one team from 11-20 (they don't play in a regular competition) away the next year. 11-20 play 21-30 away and so on. Yes, it really is that simple.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Figaro » Mon, 08 Oct 2018, 11:26

Sick wrote:
Figaro wrote:- Romania will decline relatively in Europe and end up behind at least some of Spain, Russia, and Germany by 2030. Most likely one or both of Spain or Germany will qualify for the WC by 2030, virtually guaranteed if the WC expands.


What is this predictions base?
You do realise we were 19th in the world in 2011, right?


I said decline relatively. I'm sure the 2030 Romania team would comfortably beat the 2018 team. I just see other European sides progressing faster and sooner or later they will overtake them. Twenty years ago Romania were the strongest team outside the 6N and routinely beat Georgia; then Georgia overtook them and are now comfartbly ahead. Both Spain and Germany can now beat Romania on a good day when ten years ago it would have been unthinkable. So no I'm not saying Romania is dying or anything, just that I can't see them holding onto their current position as 2nd best European country outside the 6N.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Raven » Mon, 08 Oct 2018, 12:35

I think we will have to wait for the Repechage winner, see how the World Cup develops and what it does to the minnow participating teams. 2015 was a major milestone for Uruguay, so would be great to see kind of like the same happening in Russia, or Kenya / HK / Germany if any of those (maybe even 2 if Namibia decides not to attend! -although very unlikely-) qualify.

One thing is clear, the Rugby World is slowly expanding and countries need to jump aboard, otherwise it will be difficult to catch up.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby NaBUru38 » Mon, 08 Oct 2018, 15:16

As Brazil and Colombia are improving their national teams, Chile and Paraguay are getting worse.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Tobar » Mon, 08 Oct 2018, 16:29

SallesNeto_BR wrote:I think MLR will be decisive in mid-term international rugby scenario. Betting that it'll be a sucess, we'll have some good and bad consequences.

1) a strong MLR will expand continually, probably killing the South American League by hiring their best players. On the other hand, it could help these nations sides grow fastly (and Canada, of course);

2) if the USA national side really becomes more and more popular and strong, then there'll be a possibility of a 6 Nations-expansion to include them. Who wouldn't want to access the US market? It could also draw in an expansion to 8 teams for schedule reasons, finally including some emerging European side (Georgia? Spain?);

3) if USA was in 6N, ARC will be died, because it'd be impossible to a nations-competition product keep worthy with Argentina XV, USA Selects, maybe Uruguay A... too much "B" sides;

4) if USA was out 6N, then it'll be necessary a new competition to these emerging nations sides. I'm not sure if ARC can become this great league, specially because it's not easy to figure out Argentina going out of TRC to focus on ARC. Maybe a redesigned Pacific Nations?

------

With a pro side and lots of players in WSR, Fiji will probably keep growing.

------

Georgia needs desesperately to improve its backrow or will stagnate. They are a small nation with negative demographic rates, so maybe they're currently close to their top. A pro league with Russia could help, whose I think Romania will avoid and keep the Superliga project.

------

I'm not sure about Japan. They are big, but in a terrible demographic trouble as well. I think they have a chance to become T1 if they get in TRC, because it'd spread the game even deeply among the few young public available. It's difficult to dispute with soccer, baseball and martial arts.

-------

African sides like Kenia or Madagascar can luckily become T2 sides if the new pro leagues in America and Asia caught lots of their players

-------

Finally, I can see lots of potential in Russia, specially if they nail their intention of creating an Eurasian league with Georgia (and even Poland, Czechia or Ukraine, if the economics and politics get better down the road). But they'll need a foreigner-players friendly rule and do need to fix the lack of international tests in bigger cities.


I don’t think we’ll be poaching too many South Americans. Before this deal with Uruguay, there were only 2 South Americans in the league, one is US eligible and the other born here. I expect we will get more Europeans and South Africans who have a longer history of playing top quality rugby. The only way I see that happening is if the LSR is established and we have tape on the best players so we can poach some of them. After scraping off the top I think they’d still go after the Europeans looking for a shot.

I also don’t see any way that we join the 6N. Sure these guys want to break into the US market but man that would be a lopsided tournament and take away from the spectacle of it.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Coloradoan » Mon, 08 Oct 2018, 20:01

Tobar wrote:
SallesNeto_BR wrote:I think MLR will be decisive in mid-term international rugby scenario. Betting that it'll be a sucess, we'll have some good and bad consequences.

1) a strong MLR will expand continually, probably killing the South American League by hiring their best players. On the other hand, it could help these nations sides grow fastly (and Canada, of course);

2) if the USA national side really becomes more and more popular and strong, then there'll be a possibility of a 6 Nations-expansion to include them. Who wouldn't want to access the US market? It could also draw in an expansion to 8 teams for schedule reasons, finally including some emerging European side (Georgia? Spain?);

3) if USA was in 6N, ARC will be died, because it'd be impossible to a nations-competition product keep worthy with Argentina XV, USA Selects, maybe Uruguay A... too much "B" sides;

4) if USA was out 6N, then it'll be necessary a new competition to these emerging nations sides. I'm not sure if ARC can become this great league, specially because it's not easy to figure out Argentina going out of TRC to focus on ARC. Maybe a redesigned Pacific Nations?

------

With a pro side and lots of players in WSR, Fiji will probably keep growing.

------

Georgia needs desesperately to improve its backrow or will stagnate. They are a small nation with negative demographic rates, so maybe they're currently close to their top. A pro league with Russia could help, whose I think Romania will avoid and keep the Superliga project.

------

I'm not sure about Japan. They are big, but in a terrible demographic trouble as well. I think they have a chance to become T1 if they get in TRC, because it'd spread the game even deeply among the few young public available. It's difficult to dispute with soccer, baseball and martial arts.

-------

African sides like Kenia or Madagascar can luckily become T2 sides if the new pro leagues in America and Asia caught lots of their players

-------

Finally, I can see lots of potential in Russia, specially if they nail their intention of creating an Eurasian league with Georgia (and even Poland, Czechia or Ukraine, if the economics and politics get better down the road). But they'll need a foreigner-players friendly rule and do need to fix the lack of international tests in bigger cities.


I don’t think we’ll be poaching too many South Americans. Before this deal with Uruguay, there were only 2 South Americans in the league, one is US eligible and the other born here. I expect we will get more Europeans and South Africans who have a longer history of playing top quality rugby. The only way I see that happening is if the LSR is established and we have tape on the best players so we can poach some of them. After scraping off the top I think they’d still go after the Europeans looking for a shot.

I also don’t see any way that we join the 6N. Sure these guys want to break into the US market but man that would be a lopsided tournament and take away from the spectacle of it.


If they cared about the spectacle they would have kicked out the Italians years ago. And if they're willing to accept that for the Italian market, I can only imagine what they'd do for the US market, given a similarly competitive team.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Sick » Mon, 08 Oct 2018, 20:25

Figaro wrote:
Sick wrote:
Figaro wrote:- Romania will decline relatively in Europe and end up behind at least some of Spain, Russia, and Germany by 2030. Most likely one or both of Spain or Germany will qualify for the WC by 2030, virtually guaranteed if the WC expands.


What is this predictions base?
You do realise we were 19th in the world in 2011, right?


I said decline relatively. I'm sure the 2030 Romania team would comfortably beat the 2018 team. I just see other European sides progressing faster and sooner or later they will overtake them. Twenty years ago Romania were the strongest team outside the 6N and routinely beat Georgia; then Georgia overtook them and are now comfartbly ahead. Both Spain and Germany can now beat Romania on a good day when ten years ago it would have been unthinkable. So no I'm not saying Romania is dying or anything, just that I can't see them holding onto their current position as 2nd best European country outside the 6N.


How do you envision other European nations overtaking us.?! On what is your prediction based on? Spain and Germany can beat Romania NOW on a GOOD DAY?! The fuck dude Portugal and Russia used to beat us on a GOOD DAY a few years ago. Russia are ahead because they rated everyone out and Portugal can't beat Belgium to join REC. Spain have 80% of their team eligibilised, the rate their youth profesionalise is shit and the top german team couldn't join Challenge because of a financial conflict. Georgia is the exception to the rule. Sorry.

We will have a drop in performance, sure. But i don't see anyone beating us in NORMAL days in 3-4 years.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Working Class Rugger » Tue, 09 Oct 2018, 03:30

Sick wrote:
Figaro wrote:
Sick wrote:
Figaro wrote:- Romania will decline relatively in Europe and end up behind at least some of Spain, Russia, and Germany by 2030. Most likely one or both of Spain or Germany will qualify for the WC by 2030, virtually guaranteed if the WC expands.


What is this predictions base?
You do realise we were 19th in the world in 2011, right?


I said decline relatively. I'm sure the 2030 Romania team would comfortably beat the 2018 team. I just see other European sides progressing faster and sooner or later they will overtake them. Twenty years ago Romania were the strongest team outside the 6N and routinely beat Georgia; then Georgia overtook them and are now comfartbly ahead. Both Spain and Germany can now beat Romania on a good day when ten years ago it would have been unthinkable. So no I'm not saying Romania is dying or anything, just that I can't see them holding onto their current position as 2nd best European country outside the 6N.


How do you envision other European nations overtaking us.?! On what is your prediction based on? Spain and Germany can beat Romania NOW on a GOOD DAY?! The fuck dude Portugal and Russia used to beat us on a GOOD DAY a few years ago. Russia are ahead because they rated everyone out and Portugal can't beat Belgium to join REC. Spain have 80% of their team eligibilised, the rate their youth profesionalise is shit and the top german team couldn't join Challenge because of a financial conflict. Georgia is the exception to the rule. Sorry.

We will have a drop in performance, sure. But i don't see anyone beating us in NORMAL days in 3-4 years.


Spain are growing their junior ranks at more than 10% year on year. They are also building their competition structures all the way up to transitioning their national league to professionalism. This will help drive Spain forward and it time there will be more born and raised Spaniards. Regarding naturalisation. Yes, there are many French born players of Spanish heritage. But correct me if I'm wrong haven't been a few Pacific Islanders on the Romanian national team in recent years. Is there a large PI community in Romania?

The Netherlands are looking to do very similar from all accounts as well.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby carbonero » Tue, 09 Oct 2018, 03:57

Working Class Rugger wrote: Spain are growing their junior ranks at more than 10% year on year. They are also building their competition structures all the way up to transitioning their national league to professionalism. This will help drive Spain forward and it time there will be more born and raised Spaniards.

The clubs are just bypassing the FER. That doesn’t mean more professionalism. Nor more opportunities for local players. In fact, their last training squad was full with foreign journeyman from Liga Heineken. The best prospects are moving into sevens because it is the only semi-professional pathway available. Our resident Spaniard has explained it plenty of times.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Working Class Rugger » Tue, 09 Oct 2018, 04:15

carbonero wrote:
Working Class Rugger wrote: Spain are growing their junior ranks at more than 10% year on year. They are also building their competition structures all the way up to transitioning their national league to professionalism. This will help drive Spain forward and it time there will be more born and raised Spaniards.

The clubs are just bypassing the FER. That doesn’t mean more professionalism. Nor more opportunities for local players. In fact, their last training squad was full with foreign journeyman from Liga Heineken. The best prospects are moving into sevens because it is the only semi-professional pathway available. Our resident Spaniard has explained it plenty of times.


He has also detailed the double digit annual growth in kids playing the game. He also mentioned the plan to transition Liga Heineken to professionalism.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby carbonero » Tue, 09 Oct 2018, 04:44

The playing numbers are promising but the league is the same semi-pro setup with a layer of paint

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Armchair Fan » Tue, 09 Oct 2018, 08:00

Yeah, that's why I'd rather not intervene in this topic. We will be in 2020s and 2030s just like we were in 2010s. If you keep doing the same there isn't much chance you will obtain different results, unless other nations dramatically fall or RWC opens to 24 teams (and even in that case I think we could miss out).

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Sick » Tue, 09 Oct 2018, 08:23

Working Class Rugger wrote:
carbonero wrote:
Working Class Rugger wrote: Spain are growing their junior ranks at more than 10% year on year. They are also building their competition structures all the way up to transitioning their national league to professionalism. This will help drive Spain forward and it time there will be more born and raised Spaniards.

The clubs are just bypassing the FER. That doesn’t mean more professionalism. Nor more opportunities for local players. In fact, their last training squad was full with foreign journeyman from Liga Heineken. The best prospects are moving into sevens because it is the only semi-professional pathway available. Our resident Spaniard has explained it plenty of times.


He has also detailed the double digit annual growth in kids playing the game. He also mentioned the plan to transition Liga Heineken to professionalism.


Well I have news for you. We have 10 MORE rugby xv TEAMS at U19 and U18 combined than we did last year. Can you imagine that? 10 more teams! The procentual increase is uncomputable, man! I didn't mention this before simply because IT DOESN'T MEAN ANYTHING. If you have a yearly 10% increase in players and they don't turn pro it does not mean anything. Or if you have a 10 team increase but they only get quality coaching when they are pro Superliga level players and mature at 22 it still doesn't mean ANYTHING. NOTHING CHANGES.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby RugbyLiebe » Tue, 09 Oct 2018, 08:43

Can we all agree that a significant growth in the youth game is a good indicator, that the game is actually growing and that attendances for club and national team games in 5 digit zone can also seen as a possible indicator that a semi-pro to pro-league is not completely out of reach within the next ten years.

What always puzzles me about Romania is that they seem to totally go the American way of sports (bar of rugby funwise). You play as a kid/ young adult but stop when you are grown up and didn't get a pro to play in regular leagues. Something totally unknown in all other EU countries I can think of. There a lot of people keep on playing competitive amateur sports well in their 30ies.

Btw. I don't think that this does is necessarily bad for the pro game, but it kind of limits the audience for a sport.
How to grow rugby worldwide?
Look at the world ranking in July. Teams ranked 1-10 have to play one team from 11-20 (they don't play in a regular competition) away the next year. 11-20 play 21-30 away and so on. Yes, it really is that simple.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Sick » Tue, 09 Oct 2018, 09:05

RugbyLiebe wrote:Can we all agree that a significant growth in the youth game is a good indicator, that the game is actually growing and that attendances for club and national team games in 5 digit zone can also seen as a possible indicator that a semi-pro to pro-league is not completely out of reach within the next ten years.

What always puzzles me about Romania is that they seem to totally go the American way of sports (bar of rugby funwise). You play as a kid/ young adult but stop when you are grown up and didn't get a pro to play in regular leagues. Something totally unknown in all other EU countries I can think of. There a lot of people keep on playing competitive amateur sports well in their 30ies.

Btw. I don't think that this does is necessarily bad for the pro game, but it kind of limits the audience for a sport.


The only place on Earth where attendance is an indicator of how good a rugby nation is quality wise, how fast it's growing, how good or how close a pro league is on this forum. There are t3 teams that have better attendance than t2 and that hasn't meant shit if either the government or the private sector don't invest. The are t2 games that sellout huge stadiums and then the same t2 team that soldout 40k has 1000 attendance the next one. If you give any goddamn t2 team a ABs test ofc they will have great attendance. DUDE LOOK AROUND AT TOP CLUB LEVEL THERE ARE EMPTY SEATS EVERYWHERE. There are TRC matches that are played in 18.000 stadiums and even that one didn't look like a sellout to me.

About youth the overall growth in numbers is a shit indicator for me. Nobody gives a shit about 500 youths that are poorly coached, in poor condition and don't turn pro. You could have 2 milion players and you could still be shit at pro level if there is no infrastructure set in place to profesionalize. You need good championships at all age grades and quality staff. And then they need to want to play rugby all their life. That is an indicator of growth. Not a 10% growth in numbers.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Tobar » Tue, 09 Oct 2018, 17:46

RugbyLiebe wrote:Can we all agree that a significant growth in the youth game is a good indicator, that the game is actually growing and that attendances for club and national team games in 5 digit zone can also seen as a possible indicator that a semi-pro to pro-league is not completely out of reach within the next ten years.

What always puzzles me about Romania is that they seem to totally go the American way of sports (bar of rugby funwise). You play as a kid/ young adult but stop when you are grown up and didn't get a pro to play in regular leagues. Something totally unknown in all other EU countries I can think of. There a lot of people keep on playing competitive amateur sports well in their 30ies.

Btw. I don't think that this does is necessarily bad for the pro game, but it kind of limits the audience for a sport.


Yeah after college the only truly competitive adult leagues I know of are basketball leagues. Most people just play pickup basketball (my 60 year old dad still does this) but there are leagues, especially in cities. There are also soccer and softball leagues, both coed and men/women only. Softball can get competitive but it’s still very social, same with soccer for the most part. There are almost no amateur football leagues which is why I started playing rugby.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby TheStroBro » Tue, 09 Oct 2018, 19:26

Trying to understand something here...how does a Union as fucked as the SRU gain a seat on the WR Council?

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Armchair Fan » Tue, 09 Oct 2018, 20:09

Only to stop listening to Dan Leo's constant whining it's worth the effort.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby carbonero » Tue, 09 Oct 2018, 20:14

The criteria doesn't look that hard to comply:

(i) Have qualified for the Rugby World Cup Finals Tournament on two consecutive occasions in the assessment period (8 years)

(ii) Fully comply with World Rugby Membership Criteria as applicable at the time of application

(iii) Be in good standing with World Rugby (and in particular that it has filed and continues to file all appropriate paperwork/reports required by World Rugby and has paid all fees which are due for its membership or the renewal thereof)

(iv) Be a member of its Association recognised by Council

(v) Be in good standing with its National Olympic Committee (NOC) and/or National Sports Ministry(vi) Be able to demonstrate that Good Governance practice is in operation including but not limited to in the following areas:

• Constitution, Bye-Laws & Regulations Relating to the Game are fully applied;
• Three years of unqualified audited accounts or, where such accounts are qualified, such qualification(s) is not material to the Union’s compliance with the Criteria, as determined by the Nominations Committee;
• Three years of AGM Minutes provided;
• Transparent links with membership evident;
• Satisfactory confirmation that the Union has jurisdiction and control over players & the professional game in their Union territory; and
• Comply with any National or regional legislation, in the area of good governance for sporting bodies.

I imagine Fiji will get in as well. I have my doubts with Tonga's governance but if Samoa got their seat maybe there is a chance. Uruguay and Namibia are the other candidates based on consecutive RWC participation.

RWC qualification shouldn't be part of the criteria. What happens with Romania now? Or even Canada?

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