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2023 World Cup Predictions

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2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby Edgar » Tue, 12 Nov 2019, 22:18

Only 1395 days to go! Early predictions anyone?

Who's going to win? Who'll be the breakthrough 2nd tier team of the tournament? Will any new teams qualify? (pretty sure it's staying at 20 teams for 2023).

If the teams finish in their now customary positions it should be New Zealand or South Africa first, England or France in second, New Zealand in third (if they don't win), Wales losing in the semis, Australia and Scotland in the quarters - and Ireland dipping out at that stage as per usual. Argentina a 50/50 chance for the quarters, and Wales won't get that far if they're drawn in a pool with Samoa. In other words, some rugby playing nations will probably make the playoffs in some order or another.

Breakthrough 2nd tier team: USA on account of MLR and World Rugby assistance to get them in shape for hosting in 2031. Fiji or Japan again. Samoa if they're drawn in the same pool as Wales.

I think Italy may have a good tournament and even make the playoffs for the first time, given their form at age-grade level in recent times, but technically they're considered tier 1.

Newby: Probably none. Romania will return and Spain may qualify for just the second time. Best prospect for a debut appearance - Brazil - tho I think that won't come til expansion in 2027.

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby jservuk » Tue, 12 Nov 2019, 22:38

All eyes will be on Jap[an to see if they can sustain their recent improvements.

If they can, and make it another quarter final I think that would be great for RWC, and maybe provide a template for other T2 nations to follow, notwithstanding the obvious resources that Japan has at its disposal.

A bold prediction is that they will they might try to hold some games across the border in Spain and Germany especially if either of these qualify. Spain more likely than Germany. Germany playing at home in their first RWC would be an interesting sell to the German people.

I think France will win. I think French Rugby will want to match their football counterparts and basque in the same apathy that the French showed for football WC success.

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby Blurandski » Tue, 12 Nov 2019, 23:23

England to win. Ridiculously young squad this year that will come back stronger. France's good youth system will bear fruits and they'll go deep. Ireland and Scotland to be nowhere.

USA, Fiji, Japan, Uruguay to be the standout T2 sides, with a couple making the quarters.

Spain will qualify, Romania or Russia as well in place of Canada.

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby Tobar » Wed, 13 Nov 2019, 03:37

Just imagine how much more exciting the repechage would’ve been with Spain or Romania instead of Germany. Throw in a Hong Kong side which should be better as well because of GRR. Would definitely like to see that.

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby amz » Wed, 13 Nov 2019, 09:50

Tobar wrote:Just imagine how much more exciting the repechage would’ve been with Spain or Romania instead of Germany. Throw in a Hong Kong side which should be better as well because of GRR. Would definitely like to see that.


I think it would make a more exciting repechage with Pacific Islanders or an Americas team once Europe gets its place taken away after 2015 back.

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby RugbyLiebe » Wed, 13 Nov 2019, 10:38

amz wrote:
Tobar wrote:Just imagine how much more exciting the repechage would’ve been with Spain or Romania instead of Germany. Throw in a Hong Kong side which should be better as well because of GRR. Would definitely like to see that.


I think it would make a more exciting repechage with Pacific Islanders or an Americas team once Europe gets its place taken away after 2015 back.


Would be exactly the same though. Only that Georgia gets one of the two first places and not auto-qualify.

Also, sorry the repechage would not have been more exciting in 2018 than a Canada-Germany game open for 68 minutes. (Score was 17-10 until then). It would have been most likely a one-sided trashing of Canada.
How to grow rugby worldwide?
Look at the world ranking in July. Teams ranked 1-10 have to play one team from 11-20 (they don't play in a regular competition) away the next year. 11-20 play 21-30 away and so on. Yes, it really is that simple.

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby Armchair Fan » Wed, 13 Nov 2019, 10:52

The idea that Canada would have been out of RWC without Rugby Europe has always made me irk. Spain was beaten at home just the year before.

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby amz » Wed, 13 Nov 2019, 11:06

Armchair Fan wrote:The idea that Canada would have been out of RWC without Rugby Europe has always made me irk. Spain was beaten at home just the year before.


that's because so far Spain fielded strong squads only with Romania and not with Georgia or Canada 8-)

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby Armchair Fan » Wed, 13 Nov 2019, 11:39

With Georgia we didn't, but against Canada only Malié was missing and it was a total and collective meltdown for 20 minutes. That's why my trust on my team is always low and I prefer to be wrong afterwards.

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby RugbyLiebe » Wed, 13 Nov 2019, 12:23

Armchair Fan wrote:With Georgia we didn't, but against Canada only Malié was missing and it was a total and collective meltdown for 20 minutes. That's why my trust on my team is always low and I prefer to be wrong afterwards.


Trashing was probably a way too strong word. Thing is Germany (even after a disastrous year including a player's strike) was not the factor of creating a less exciting repechage. Kenya was.
How to grow rugby worldwide?
Look at the world ranking in July. Teams ranked 1-10 have to play one team from 11-20 (they don't play in a regular competition) away the next year. 11-20 play 21-30 away and so on. Yes, it really is that simple.

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby BigG » Wed, 13 Nov 2019, 12:56

France at least in 1/2 finals.
SA will fail, i.e. not in final four.
Georgia will have much better performance. I expect two wins at a group stage.
The US - good performance.

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby RugbyLiebe » Wed, 13 Nov 2019, 13:08

Some of mine are frankly not that likely, but I regretted to not have done this kind of thing in the other thread for 2019 :D

Ranked from 100% sure to likely
- no new nation to qualify for 2019
- European teams: Georgia, Spain, Romania
- Canada to not qualify
- the USA will nearly miss auto-qualification
- only Cartel nations or Japan in the quarter finals
- One of Tonga or Samoa only having 5 or less home-born-players in their squad.
- still a 20 teams RWC and no announcement to have 24 teams in 2027 (edited from 2023, mixed up years)
- Italy will reach the Quarters.
- France to win it
Last edited by RugbyLiebe on Thu, 14 Nov 2019, 07:43, edited 1 time in total.
How to grow rugby worldwide?
Look at the world ranking in July. Teams ranked 1-10 have to play one team from 11-20 (they don't play in a regular competition) away the next year. 11-20 play 21-30 away and so on. Yes, it really is that simple.

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby Tobar » Wed, 13 Nov 2019, 13:30

RugbyLiebe wrote:
Armchair Fan wrote:With Georgia we didn't, but against Canada only Malié was missing and it was a total and collective meltdown for 20 minutes. That's why my trust on my team is always low and I prefer to be wrong afterwards.


Trashing was probably a way too strong word. Thing is Germany (even after a disastrous year including a player's strike) was not the factor of creating a less exciting repechage. Kenya was.


Germany didn’t create a less exciting tournament, my only suggestion was that having 2 better teams in the repechage - Spain, Romania, Russia (if you consider them better) plus an improved Hong Kong - would make the tournament even more interesting since neither Germany nor HK won.

I expect Canada to be better within 4 years too. Hopefully their board gets their collective heads out of their ass and starts playing their professional players. Within 4 years they should have a much better professional player pool based in North America. But then again they could just select a bunch of BC amateurs.

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby RugbyLiebe » Wed, 13 Nov 2019, 14:59

Tobar wrote:Germany didn’t create a less exciting tournament, my only suggestion was that having 2 better teams in the repechage - Spain, Romania, Russia (if you consider them better) plus an improved Hong Kong - would make the tournament even more interesting since neither Germany nor HK won.

I expect Canada to be better within 4 years too. Hopefully their board gets their collective heads out of their ass and starts playing their professional players. Within 4 years they should have a much better professional player pool based in North America. But then again they could just select a bunch of BC amateurs.


Fair enough. I think, that there won't be two European teams in the repechage and I don't see were more "excitement could" come from in the next 4 years. HK are the only candidates, as Brazil also won't be there if they don't beat Canada.
How to grow rugby worldwide?
Look at the world ranking in July. Teams ranked 1-10 have to play one team from 11-20 (they don't play in a regular competition) away the next year. 11-20 play 21-30 away and so on. Yes, it really is that simple.

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby snapper37 » Wed, 13 Nov 2019, 15:58

Tobar wrote:Just imagine how much more exciting the repechage would’ve been with Spain or Romania instead of Germany. Throw in a Hong Kong side which should be better as well because of GRR. Would definitely like to see that.



Canada wouldn't have made it to the world cup.

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby snapper37 » Wed, 13 Nov 2019, 16:00

Tobar wrote:
RugbyLiebe wrote:
Armchair Fan wrote:With Georgia we didn't, but against Canada only Malié was missing and it was a total and collective meltdown for 20 minutes. That's why my trust on my team is always low and I prefer to be wrong afterwards.


Trashing was probably a way too strong word. Thing is Germany (even after a disastrous year including a player's strike) was not the factor of creating a less exciting repechage. Kenya was.


Germany didn’t create a less exciting tournament, my only suggestion was that having 2 better teams in the repechage - Spain, Romania, Russia (if you consider them better) plus an improved Hong Kong - would make the tournament even more interesting since neither Germany nor HK won.

I expect Canada to be better within 4 years too. Hopefully their board gets their collective heads out of their ass and starts playing their professional players. Within 4 years they should have a much better professional player pool based in North America. But then again they could just select a bunch of BC amateurs.



Rumor mill is that Rugby Canada is almost bankrupt. Canada is going nowhere

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby victorsra » Wed, 13 Nov 2019, 16:08

And Brazil too. With a big debt.
Brazilian Rugby News: www.portaldorugby.com.br

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby snapper37 » Wed, 13 Nov 2019, 17:05

RugbyLiebe wrote:Some of mine are frankly not that likely, but I regretted to not have done this kind of thing in the other thread for 2019 :D

Ranked from 100% sure to likely
- no new nation to qualify for 2019
- European teams: Georgia, Spain, Romania
- Canada to not qualify
- the USA will nearly miss auto-qualification
- only Cartel nations or Japan in the quarter finals
- One of Tonga or Samoa only having 5 or less home-born-players in their squad.
- still a 20 teams RWC and no announcement to have 24 teams in 2023
- Italy will reach the Quarters.
- France to win it



sounds about right, Except for the Italy and USA quote. Italy will need to start improving their 6 nations results before they do anything at he world cup. as getting to the 1/4 finals means they will need to beat one of the top nations. Same with the USA, which they can't do.
- no new nation to qualify for 2019
- European teams: Georgia, Spain, Romania will push qualify
- Canada to not qualify
- the USA will improve to finish 4th in their pool (win their first game in how many tournaments)
- Eyes will be on Japan
- Fiji will make a splash if they change their coach (rumour has it will be a french man)
- still a 20 teams RWC and no announcement to have 24 teams in 2023 (24 shouldn't happen)
- Italy will not reach the Quarters.(nope, needs consistency at 6 nations first)

This meant how they broke the world rankings into pools (of course two years from now) but interesting to see how it will play out.

Pool A
4
5
9
15
Europe 1
Playoff

Pool B
1
7
12
Africa 1
Repechage

Pool C
2
6
10
America 1
Ocean 2

Pool D
3
8
9
11
Ocean 1
America 2


Band 1

South Africa (1)
New Zealand (2)
England (3)
Wales (4)

Band 2
Ireland (5)
Australia (6)
France(7)
Japan (8)

Band 3
Scotland (9)
Argentina (10)
Fiji (11)
Italy (12)

Above were direct qualifiers

Band 4
Samoa (Oceania 1)
USA (Americas 1)
Georgia (Europe 1)
Namibia (Africa 1)

Band 5
Tonga (Oceania 2)
Uruguay (Americas 2)
(Play-off)
(Repechage)

Pool A
Wales
Ireland
Argentina
Europe 1(Georgia)
Play off (Romania)

Pool B
South Africa
France
Fiji
Africa 1 (Namibia)
Repechage (Spain)

Pool c
NZ
Australia
Scotland
America 1 (usa)
Ocean 1 (samoa)

Pool D
England
Japan
Italy
Oceans 2 (Tonga)
Americas 2(Uruguay)

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby Edgar » Wed, 13 Nov 2019, 20:02

snapper37 wrote:
RugbyLiebe wrote:Some of mine are frankly not that likely, but I regretted to not have done this kind of thing in the other thread for 2019 :D

Ranked from 100% sure to likely
- no new nation to qualify for 2019
- European teams: Georgia, Spain, Romania
- Canada to not qualify
- the USA will nearly miss auto-qualification
- only Cartel nations or Japan in the quarter finals
- One of Tonga or Samoa only having 5 or less home-born-players in their squad.
- still a 20 teams RWC and no announcement to have 24 teams in 2023
- Italy will reach the Quarters.
- France to win it



sounds about right, Except for the Italy and USA quote. Italy will need to start improving their 6 nations results before they do anything at he world cup. as getting to the 1/4 finals means they will need to beat one of the top nations. Same with the USA, which they can't do.
- no new nation to qualify for 2019
- European teams: Georgia, Spain, Romania will push qualify
- Canada to not qualify
- the USA will improve to finish 4th in their pool (win their first game in how many tournaments)
- Eyes will be on Japan
- Fiji will make a splash if they change their coach (rumour has it will be a french man)
- still a 20 teams RWC and no announcement to have 24 teams in 2023 (24 shouldn't happen)
- Italy will not reach the Quarters.(nope, needs consistency at 6 nations first)

This meant how they broke the world rankings into pools (of course two years from now) but interesting to see how it will play out.

Pool A
4
5
9
15
Europe 1
Playoff

Pool B
1
7
12
Africa 1
Repechage

Pool C
2
6
10
America 1
Ocean 2

Pool D
3
8
9
11
Ocean 1
America 2


Band 1

South Africa (1)
New Zealand (2)
England (3)
Wales (4)

Band 2
Ireland (5)
Australia (6)
France(7)
Japan (8)

Band 3
Scotland (9)
Argentina (10)
Fiji (11)
Italy (12)

Above were direct qualifiers

Band 4
Samoa (Oceania 1)
USA (Americas 1)
Georgia (Europe 1)
Namibia (Africa 1)

Band 5
Tonga (Oceania 2)
Uruguay (Americas 2)
(Play-off)
(Repechage)

Pool A
Wales
Ireland
Argentina
Europe 1(Georgia)
Play off (Romania)

Pool B
South Africa
France
Fiji
Africa 1 (Namibia)
Repechage (Spain)

Pool c
NZ
Australia
Scotland
America 1 (usa)
Ocean 1 (samoa)

Pool D
England
Japan
Italy
Oceans 2 (Tonga)
Americas 2(Uruguay)



Nice work, Snapper. So, now we've got the teams sorted, how's it all going to play out? I'll take Argentina and Wales in Pool A with Georgia giving the Irish another big scare but falling short of the play-offs yet again. Pumas will top group on account of four more years experience in the Rugby Championship and Super 14.

South Africa and France to top Pool B & it's really just a case of which qualifies first and which qualifies second. Fiji to push the French close but not close enough. Namibia to get belated first win against Spain.

NZ & Australia to cruise through Pool C, with the Wallabies an outside chance of grabbing top spot. USA will upset Scotland for it's first big scalp at the World Cup ever, and possibly also beat Samoa. After several years of professional club rugby, US will be starting to show some of their long-latent potential.

Italy to disappoint the Japanophlles by finishing second to England in Pool D, finally realizing their own potential so close to home. They will also avenge their 99 defeat to Tonga. So no new 2nd tier teams in the quarters, but Italy to finally make its debut.

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby Superhans » Wed, 13 Nov 2019, 23:17

Algeria could be a chance of making the 2023 world cup...I believe they should be eligible to qualify by then. I'd expect a fully professional team of French Algerians to be competitive with Namibia.

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby RugbyLiebe » Thu, 14 Nov 2019, 07:42

snapper37 wrote:- still a 20 teams RWC and no announcement to have 24 teams in 2023


I meant to write 2027. Time flies by :D


snapper37 wrote:This meant how they broke the world rankings into pools (of course two years from now) but interesting to see how it will play out.


I think you made one small mistake. Oceania2 will be Europe2 as Fiji auto-qualified instead of Georgia, so Europe should get the place from Oceania back. But who knows, World Rugby might f*** Europe over another time.
If not: Spain/Romania Europe2, Romania/Spain playoff, Samoa repechage.
How to grow rugby worldwide?
Look at the world ranking in July. Teams ranked 1-10 have to play one team from 11-20 (they don't play in a regular competition) away the next year. 11-20 play 21-30 away and so on. Yes, it really is that simple.

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby novac » Thu, 14 Nov 2019, 07:55

It's interesting to see who will be directly qualified, Oceania 2 or Europe 2? Probably Oceania 2 because Fiji got already the ticket for RWC 2023. In this case Europe 2 should play a Play off against who? Canada, Brazil or some African/Asian Team?

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby RugbyLiebe » Thu, 14 Nov 2019, 10:35

novac wrote:It's interesting to see who will be directly qualified, Oceania 2 or Europe 2? Probably Oceania 2 because Fiji got already the ticket for RWC 2023. In this case Europe 2 should play a Play off against who? Canada, Brazil or some African/Asian Team?


Oceania 2 should switch to become Europe2 and directly qualify. That's what things were like for 2015. After Georgia auto-qualified that second direct place got taken away from Europe and given to Oceania. Europe3 should play that playoff as it was for 2015. If this doesn't happen Europe, rugby's biggest region, with by far the most depth outside of the Cartel would have lost one full place.
How to grow rugby worldwide?
Look at the world ranking in July. Teams ranked 1-10 have to play one team from 11-20 (they don't play in a regular competition) away the next year. 11-20 play 21-30 away and so on. Yes, it really is that simple.

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby dropkick » Thu, 14 Nov 2019, 10:59

The main thing will be the draw. That's the main thing along with squad management. SA got a lucky draw and managed their players very well to keep them fresh.


Blurandski wrote:England to win. Ridiculously young squad this year that will come back stronger. France's good youth system will bear fruits and they'll go deep. Ireland and Scotland to be nowhere.

USA, Fiji, Japan, Uruguay to be the standout T2 sides, with a couple making the quarters.

Spain will qualify, Romania or Russia as well in place of Canada.



The Welsh have peaked while Scotland and Ireland are still on an upward curve.

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Re: 2023 World Cup Predictions

Postby snapper37 » Thu, 14 Nov 2019, 17:42

dropkick wrote:The main thing will be the draw. That's the main thing along with squad management. SA got a lucky draw and managed their players very well to keep them fresh.


Blurandski wrote:England to win. Ridiculously young squad this year that will come back stronger. France's good youth system will bear fruits and they'll go deep. Ireland and Scotland to be nowhere.

USA, Fiji, Japan, Uruguay to be the standout T2 sides, with a couple making the quarters.

Spain will qualify, Romania or Russia as well in place of Canada.



The Welsh have peaked while Scotland and Ireland are still on an upward curve.



Sorry Ireland peaked a year too early.

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