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RWC 2019 Qualifying

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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby dwpeate » Tue, 06 Mar 2018, 09:57

A lot to happen before then. But you saw how close Canada pushed Italy last time..

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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby RugbyLiebe » Tue, 06 Mar 2018, 10:41

Natal wrote:Samoa are unpredictable too. If they get enough Kiwis and get some sort of preparation before the World Cup, you'd back them to challenge anyone outside the top 5 in the world. Even in 2015, when they were pretty lamentable, they came very close to beating a good Scotland team.

On paper, I'd say that they are better than Italy. In practice, however, they're fully capable of losing to Romania and Canada and missing out on the World Cup.


Fixed that for you.

Sorry had to do that bad joke. I agree, Samoa on a good day can challenge everyone. With the bad scheduling for Italy this might really be interesting.
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Look at the world ranking in July. Teams ranked 1-10 have to play one team from 11-20 (they don't play in a regular competition) away the next year. 11-20 play 21-30 away and so on. Yes, it really is that simple.

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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby rey200 » Tue, 06 Mar 2018, 13:14

Yeah, Canada pushed Italy last time, and now they are only number 4 of the Americas. I still wonder how they managed to beat Spain so easily.

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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby amz » Tue, 06 Mar 2018, 13:19

rey200 wrote:Yeah, Canada pushed Italy last time, and now they are only number 4 of the Americas. I still wonder how they managed to beat Spain so easily.


Spain played with local players? ;) Apparently not, close to full squad.

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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby olivier » Tue, 06 Mar 2018, 15:14

amz wrote:
rey200 wrote:Yeah, Canada pushed Italy last time, and now they are only number 4 of the Americas. I still wonder how they managed to beat Spain so easily.


Spain played with local players? ;) Apparently not, close to full squad.

They lacked motivation for friendlies. :) They lost by 10.

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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby YamahaKiwi » Tue, 06 Mar 2018, 15:16

I wouldn't predict anything for the playoffs. we've got three teams normally shoo-ins for RWC finals that are having to go the long way round that are struggling with their game. The ones that get in again will be the ones that get their mojo back better than the others. Given we've had a few surprises from what we would've predicted even a couple of years ago already, who knows what the remaining qualifying matches hold. It's damn interesting though!

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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby Buffalo » Tue, 06 Mar 2018, 15:18

Canada was also missing key players back in November, particularly in the backs, but sure let's just pretend it was a fluke and that Spain is some new European super power.

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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby amz » Tue, 06 Mar 2018, 15:19

olivier wrote:
amz wrote:
rey200 wrote:Yeah, Canada pushed Italy last time, and now they are only number 4 of the Americas. I still wonder how they managed to beat Spain so easily.


Spain played with local players? ;) Apparently not, close to full squad.

They lacked motivation for friendlies. :) They lost by 10.


LOL so now June and November tests are friendlies where motivation is lacking, especially when you are visited by a better placed team who went to last RWCs :lol:

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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby YamahaKiwi » Tue, 06 Mar 2018, 15:24

amz wrote:
olivier wrote:
amz wrote:
rey200 wrote:Yeah, Canada pushed Italy last time, and now they are only number 4 of the Americas. I still wonder how they managed to beat Spain so easily.


Spain played with local players? ;) Apparently not, close to full squad.

They lacked motivation for friendlies. :) They lost by 10.


LOL so now June and November tests are friendlies where motivation is lacking, especially when you are visited by a better placed team who went to last RWCs :lol:


have to say rey200 I agree with the others. If you were hosting and had the chance to knock over a team that had played in every RWC finals and gain WR ranking points I'd expect your NT players to be pretty motivated otherwise if they weren't that's a pretty sad indictment on your NT players. Having said that losing by only 10 is pretty good.

olivier

Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby olivier » Tue, 06 Mar 2018, 15:35

amz wrote:
olivier wrote:
amz wrote:
rey200 wrote:Yeah, Canada pushed Italy last time, and now they are only number 4 of the Americas. I still wonder how they managed to beat Spain so easily.


Spain played with local players? ;) Apparently not, close to full squad.

They lacked motivation for friendlies. :) They lost by 10.


LOL so now June and November tests are friendlies where motivation is lacking, especially when you are visited by a better placed team who went to last RWCs :lol:

That's exactly why France does nothing between RWC, they're fed up of friendlies.

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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby amz » Tue, 06 Mar 2018, 15:37

olivier wrote:That's exactly why France does nothing between RWC, they're fed up of friendlies.


New Zealand 62–13 France

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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby YamahaKiwi » Tue, 06 Mar 2018, 15:41

olivier wrote:
amz wrote:
olivier wrote:
amz wrote:
rey200 wrote:Yeah, Canada pushed Italy last time, and now they are only number 4 of the Americas. I still wonder how they managed to beat Spain so easily.


Spain played with local players? ;) Apparently not, close to full squad.

They lacked motivation for friendlies. :) They lost by 10.


LOL so now June and November tests are friendlies where motivation is lacking, especially when you are visited by a better placed team who went to last RWCs :lol:

That's exactly why France does nothing between RWC, they're fed up of friendlies.


Oh ok. I must tell ABs and Boks etc players they only won in France because the French players weren't trying. Merci beaucoup! :D

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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby Bogdan_DC » Tue, 06 Mar 2018, 15:46

Lately the French players don't have more than 2-3 consecutive caps so they are far of being " fed up" :)).

olivier

Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby olivier » Tue, 06 Mar 2018, 16:02

amz wrote:
olivier wrote:That's exactly why France does nothing between RWC, they're fed up of friendlies.


New Zealand 62–13 France

It's already quarter finals :)

olivier

Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby olivier » Tue, 06 Mar 2018, 16:10

Bogdan_DC wrote:Lately the French players don't have more than 2-3 consecutive caps so they are far of being " fed up" :)).

It's a collective feeling. I'm serious. Clubs took a big place in players mind.

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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby amz » Tue, 06 Mar 2018, 16:36


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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby thatrugbyguy » Tue, 06 Mar 2018, 23:20

Natal wrote:Samoa are unpredictable too. If they get near their best squad and get some sort of preparation before the World Cup, you'd back them to challenge anyone outside the top 5 in the world. Even in 2015, when they were pretty lamentable, they came very close to beating a good Scotland team.

On paper, I'd say that they are better than Italy. In practice, however, they're fully capable of losing to Romania and Canada and missing out on the World Cup.


Samoa are too unpredictable. At least Fiji and Tonga have shown a level of consistency over the last 5 or 6 years, Samoa just seem to implode at random.

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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby thatrugbyguy » Tue, 06 Mar 2018, 23:24

YamahaKiwi wrote:I wouldn't predict anything for the playoffs. we've got three teams normally shoo-ins for RWC finals that are having to go the long way round that are struggling with their game. The ones that get in again will be the ones that get their mojo back better than the others. Given we've had a few surprises from what we would've predicted even a couple of years ago already, who knows what the remaining qualifying matches hold. It's damn interesting though!


Zimbabwe might throw the biggest spanner in the works if de Villiers manages to convince all those overseas pros to pull on the jersey for the qualifiers. It is without doubt the most unpredictable qualifying campaign in recent memory, maybe ever. It would help obviously if World Rugby actually tried to promote these games more however.

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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby RugbyLiebe » Wed, 07 Mar 2018, 11:56

After having a closer look at the draw and what we know now, especially Europe will have a hard time at the RWC.

Pool A: the most probable outcome is 4 European teams in it.
Ireland and Scotland, Spain and than Romania as the playoff winner (my guess is that the bookmakers should favour Samoa atm in the repechage) together with Japan.
So we already know that an additional place for Europe is not possible.
Europe 1 has a bad schedule with just 4 days between Japan and Playoff-Winner. And those are the first two games. The playoff-winners do have a very good schedule with 6,6 and 7 days. If it is Romania, they could give Japan a good run for 3rd spot (Japan has the perfect schedule with 8,7 and 8 days.

Pool B:
Italy as third seeded them against Samoa (or Romania and Namibia/Zimbabwe/Kenya). Could be a close fight for 3rd.
Especially as Italy plays Africa 1 and Repechage Winner within 4 days. Repechage winner btw has the perfect schedule with 6 days between every game. Schedule for Africa 1 is so good I had to look multiple times. 6 days - 8 days - 7days. Here maybe we could see a big surprise from Africa... Who knows.

Pool C:
England and France should be good enough to at least finish 3rd. Don't believe that Tonga or even less likely the USA can finish ahead of them. Interesting group with Argentina.

Pool D:
Australia and Wales should be too good for Georgia, but they have a hard time beating Fiji (Uruguay shouldn't be able to beat any one of them).
Georgia plays Uruguay on September 29th just 4 days before the crucial match against Fiji, who have 4 more days to rest after playing Uruguay.
Definitely favours Fiji imho.

So we have 3 European teams with a just 4 days between their crucial two games. That's what someone calls bad luck at the draw and I call cry out for a 24-team-world cup with an equal schedule for all teams.

Really interesting what would happen if only the Home Nations and France qualify, which indeed is a realistic outcome.
How to grow rugby worldwide?
Look at the world ranking in July. Teams ranked 1-10 have to play one team from 11-20 (they don't play in a regular competition) away the next year. 11-20 play 21-30 away and so on. Yes, it really is that simple.

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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby amz » Wed, 07 Mar 2018, 12:49

Qualifying as Play Off or Repechage may prove very beneficial later :)

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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby RugbyLiebe » Wed, 07 Mar 2018, 13:09

amz wrote:Qualifying as Play Off or Repechage may prove very beneficial later :)


Spain being like:

Image
How to grow rugby worldwide?
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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby Armchair Fan » Wed, 07 Mar 2018, 13:16

Going to a cake shop is a trap for my fitness, yet I keep going everyday...

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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby thatrugbyguy » Wed, 07 Mar 2018, 13:23

I’m not one to call for geographic arrangements in the World Cup like FIFA but having 4 European teams in one pool does seem excessive. Not sure what can be done about that.

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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby victorsra » Wed, 07 Mar 2018, 13:35

Yes, but the fact that REC and 6N don't usually play each other it is ok. I think the draw should have some rules:

- 1 TRC in each group
- Mininum 1, max 2 6N countries in each group
- Max 1 PI
- Max 1 ARC (Pumas don't count)
- Max 1 REC
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Re: RWC 2019 Qualifying

Postby amz » Wed, 07 Mar 2018, 13:42

thatrugbyguy wrote:I’m not one to call for geographic arrangements in the World Cup like FIFA but having 4 European teams in one pool does seem excessive. Not sure what can be done about that.


Considering none of the 2 probable teams from Europe played the other European ones in last 15 years I don't see the issue.

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