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Virus 19

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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Fri, 13 Mar 2020, 18:07

Hold on bro. :twisted:
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Fri, 13 Mar 2020, 18:31

People. Do not panic. Look like people!
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Fri, 13 Mar 2020, 22:05

Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths

Projections based on C.D.C. scenarios show a potentially vast toll. But those numbers don’t account for interventions now underway.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/c ... imate.html
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Fri, 13 Mar 2020, 22:49

Thus ends world domination.

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Re: Virus 19

Postby Canadian_Rugger » Sat, 14 Mar 2020, 03:37

Not to sound alarmist but things are going to get worse, way worse.

I'm in the Military and we have been ordered to self-isolate in order to preserve force strength for the days ahead.

It's very likely there are 10x as many people already infected atm as there are people that have been diagnosed.

We know this to be true based on what happened in China. We also know the CCP and Iranian Govts were not transparent or honest wrt just how bad the virus is/was.

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Re: Virus 19

Postby Canalina » Sat, 14 Mar 2020, 08:34

Yes, also here in Italy the feeling is that the infected people are much more than the detected ones. There are so many sport famous players, actors (Tom Hanks & wife), writers (Luis Sepulveda), politics and other public figures infected that you can't believe that the general percentage is just 1/10,000. But this must not sound so bad, to me: if there are many people infected but not detected, this probably mean that they are not really aware to be infected, and this should mean that the symptoms are light or even not perceivable. So, yes, they could be infecting other people unconsciously and this is of course a very bad thing; but the fact that they are infected without knowing it means also that the virus is not so hard-hitting in percentage terms. The mortality rate is probably lower or maybe much lower that the one currently recorded (in Italy 7% !), and the percentage of those who takes the virus without really suffering is probably higher than the one now registered

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Re: Virus 19

Postby Canalina » Sat, 14 Mar 2020, 10:20

The Milano's traditional song ("O mia bela madunina", "My beautiful little statue of the virgin Mary") played by a trumpeter

https://video.corriere.it/cronaca/coron ... applaudono

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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sat, 14 Mar 2020, 16:23

A team of Chinese health experts are in Iraq to help the country contain the #coronavirus outbreak. #COVID19

https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/1238798742364360705
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sat, 14 Mar 2020, 17:59

St. Petersburg . Today.

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Re: Virus 19

Postby Canalina » Sat, 14 Mar 2020, 18:34

In Italy all the factors are still neatly marked with "+" and the trend remains constant, without real flexions. The data are also a bit difficult to interpretate, the trend of the various indicators are not homogeneous; maybe because some regions are not always quick to communicate the data to the central base

11 march
+ 2313 total cases
+ 196 deaths
+ 41 healed
+ 2076 currenlty infected

12 march
+ 2651 total cases (15113)
+ 189 deaths (1016)
+ 213 healed (1258)
+ 2249 currenlty infected (12839)

13 march
+ 2547 total cases (17660)
+ 250 deaths (1266)
+ 181 healed (1439)
+ 2116 currenlty infected (14955)

14 march
+ 3497 total cases (21157)
+ 175 deaths (1441)
+ 527 healed (1966)
+ 2795 currenlty infected (17750)

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Re: Virus 19

Postby RugbyLiebe » Sat, 14 Mar 2020, 18:56

Vova12 wrote:St. Petersburg . Today.



Lets talk about this in two weeks again. I have my doubts if this is smart to continue to play. Why shouldn't anything happen in Russia?
How to grow rugby worldwide?
Look at the world ranking in July. Teams ranked 1-10 have to play one team from 11-20 (they don't play in a regular competition) away the next year. 11-20 play 21-30 away and so on. Yes, it really is that simple.

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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sat, 14 Mar 2020, 19:02

We will not have such a scale as in Europe because Russian government has been dealing with this issue since mid January.
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sat, 14 Mar 2020, 20:44

How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 40-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sat, 14 Mar 2020, 20:46

Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemi

https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7582
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sat, 14 Mar 2020, 20:48

RugbyLiebe wrote:
Lets talk about this in two weeks again. I have my doubts if this is smart to continue to play. Why shouldn't anything happen in Russia?
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sat, 14 Mar 2020, 21:00

ln Russia a huge part of flow of people (tourists, etc) goes through Moscow and StPetersburg. In Russia most of antiviral efforts are concentrated in this area. Вorder with China was immedately closed. In addition efforts began in January to counter epidmic. Therefore no one has died in Russia now. Тotal of 69 infected people including foreigners.
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sat, 14 Mar 2020, 21:51

I apologize. 59 cases to date.
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Canalina » Sun, 15 Mar 2020, 07:35

Still active cases (in thousands)

Italy 17.7 +2.8
Cina 10.7 -1.3
Iran 7.7 (not updated yesterday evening)
Korea South 7.2 -0.1
Spain 5.6 +0.3
Germany 4.5 +1.6
France 4.3 +0.8
Usa 2.9 +0.7
Svizzera 1.3 (not updated yesterday evening)
UK 1.1 (not updated yesterday evening)

TOT 75.1 +4.4 (not completely updated yesterday evening)

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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sun, 15 Mar 2020, 14:50

Illinois Governor Blasts Trump Administration As Screening Jams Airports
New coronavirus screening requirements are creating massive bottlenecks in airports, creating crowds like those officials have warned against.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ ... ccounter=1

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Re: Virus 19

Postby STMKY » Sun, 15 Mar 2020, 15:18

The famous Russian blogger Alex Brezhnev filmed a panic in California. He works as truckers in Canada and USA. He went to the store to buy food and was shocked. He says that even during Perestroika this did not happen in the USSR.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHt1FPg1xms&t=620s

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Re: Virus 19

Postby Canalina » Sun, 15 Mar 2020, 16:30

I admit I haven't watched the whole video but I can't see panic. I see a lot of people, presumably worried but calm, buying food. Included the famous russian blogger

Nobody tries to cut the queue, nobody rushes, nobody screams, nobody fights for an item. The only strange thing is that there are much more buyers than in usual time, but they act in a total civil way

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Re: Virus 19

Postby Canadian_Rugger » Sun, 15 Mar 2020, 17:01

One thing that is going to hurt America is how unhealthy their population is. Americans are amongst the unhealthiest in the world and this disease will probably kill far higher numbers of Americans simply due to the high levels of diabetes, obesity and associated health issues than exist elsewhere.

That was also one of China's problems. China has a lot of smokers, a lot of very unhealthy people due to pollution, etc.

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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sun, 15 Mar 2020, 17:13

Guys, relax. In all countries outbreak develops according to Hubei option with damping of percentage of growth in accordance with that in province of Hubei. This means that no more than 32 days will pass from moment of overcoming mark of 100 cases detected per day until steady daily percentage growth is reduced to less than 1% per day. This fact was established by one of researchers in Russia.
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sun, 15 Mar 2020, 17:14

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blue hubei
red italy
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sun, 15 Mar 2020, 17:16

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blue hubei
red spain
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