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2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby Ser Podrick of Payne » Tue, 05 Aug 2014, 18:57

iul wrote:
Ser Podrick of Payne wrote:
iul wrote:
Ser Podrick of Payne wrote:
grande wrote:I don't know if anyone else watched Ireland vs New Zealand but holy shit that was tense at the end.

Can't watch any of it as the IRB stream is blocked here.

Wonder if this'll kick off a new bout of anti IRFU whinging on this board now :|

install hola on your browser. Set it to Chile or some other country.

Thanks - I'm a bit wary of installing anything like that though in case of adware etc. Is it safe?

Yes it's safe.

Righto then :thumbup:

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby rampage » Wed, 06 Aug 2014, 00:37

Thanks to the Irish lasses knocking off the Black Ferns (which I went :shock: when I saw the result this morning) it has thrown the tournament open, with the NZ v Eng final everyone was hoping for possibly coming up in the semis. It has also turned the final round of games into virtual quarter finals, with in realistic terms, only Ireland are assured passage (assuming that Kazakhstan don't pull off the mother of all upsets).

Given the for and against differences, I would assume that the winner of England/Canada would end up as the number 1 seed, unless France has a big win over Australia. Ireland would likely become the second or third seed (which is of no difference), and will likely play the winner of France/Australia. New Zealand and USA, unless their are significant bonus points won by the loser of England/Canada or by France in a loss to Australia, will come in as 4th seed.

The semis are shaping as:
England/Canada v NZ/USA
Ireland v France/Australia

This will be a gun Day 3.

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby RugbyKanal » Wed, 06 Aug 2014, 08:15

rampage wrote:Thanks to the Irish lasses knocking off the Black Ferns (which I went :shock: when I saw the result this morning) it has thrown the tournament open, with the NZ v Eng final everyone was hoping for possibly coming up in the semis. It has also turned the final round of games into virtual quarter finals, with in realistic terms, only Ireland are assured passage (assuming that Kazakhstan don't pull off the mother of all upsets).

Given the for and against differences, I would assume that the winner of England/Canada would end up as the number 1 seed, unless France has a big win over Australia. Ireland would likely become the second or third seed (which is of no difference), and will likely play the winner of France/Australia. New Zealand and USA, unless their are significant bonus points won by the loser of England/Canada or by France in a loss to Australia, will come in as 4th seed.

The semis are shaping as:
England/Canada v NZ/USA
Ireland v France/Australia

This will be a gun Day 3.


If England beats Canada, but Canada take both Bonuspoints, they are at 12 points and can't be caugth by New Zealand anymore. Just sayin ;-)

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby toulousain » Wed, 06 Aug 2014, 09:52

Record of TV audience for a women rugby game in France for France - South Africa !

http://www.lequipe.fr/Medias/Actualites ... ues/488076

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby rampage » Wed, 06 Aug 2014, 10:15

RugbyKanal wrote:
rampage wrote:Thanks to the Irish lasses knocking off the Black Ferns (which I went :shock: when I saw the result this morning) it has thrown the tournament open, with the NZ v Eng final everyone was hoping for possibly coming up in the semis. It has also turned the final round of games into virtual quarter finals, with in realistic terms, only Ireland are assured passage (assuming that Kazakhstan don't pull off the mother of all upsets).

Given the for and against differences, I would assume that the winner of England/Canada would end up as the number 1 seed, unless France has a big win over Australia. Ireland would likely become the second or third seed (which is of no difference), and will likely play the winner of France/Australia. New Zealand and USA, unless their are significant bonus points won by the loser of England/Canada or by France in a loss to Australia, will come in as 4th seed.

The semis are shaping as:
England/Canada v NZ/USA
Ireland v France/Australia

This will be a gun Day 3.


If England beats Canada, but Canada take both Bonuspoints, they are at 12 points and can't be caugth by New Zealand anymore. Just sayin ;-)


Same if Australia beat France, and France take 2 bonus points.

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby ugrugbychiclet » Wed, 06 Aug 2014, 14:38

IRB really needs to introduce quarter finals to this cup. We need to watch more exciting games not just a handful of them ...

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby ormond lad » Wed, 06 Aug 2014, 17:56

ugrugbychiclet wrote:IRB really needs to introduce quarter finals to this cup. We need to watch more exciting games not just a handful of them ...
Quarter finals shouldn't be introduced until there is 16 teams competing in the group stage. Are we ready for 16 teams competing in world cup?

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby grande » Thu, 07 Aug 2014, 13:17

ormond lad wrote:
ugrugbychiclet wrote:IRB really needs to introduce quarter finals to this cup. We need to watch more exciting games not just a handful of them ...
Quarter finals shouldn't be introduced until there is 16 teams competing in the group stage. Are we ready for 16 teams competing in world cup?


That's one of the problems with women's rugby... There are about six teams that could beat any other team given the right bit of luck / skill / conditions, but then after that, the quality drops off fast.

Anyway, my excitement for Ireland beating New Zealand didn't last long... I was pretty disappointed when I realised it really reduced Canada's chances of getting through to the semi's. Hopefully we can pull of a win against England like we did in the Nations Cup... but I understand that wasn't England's top flight of players.

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby grande » Thu, 07 Aug 2014, 13:21

Updated rankings:

1. New Zealand (49.78)
2. Ireland (48.02, ↑3)
3. England (46.76, ↓1) (US)
4. Canada (45.56, ↓1)
5. France (45.53, ↓1)
6. Australia (44.06)
7. United States (39.98)
8. South Africa (35.81)
9. Italy (35.44)
10. Spain (34.4)
11. Wales (33.45, ↑1)
12. Kazakhstan (32.06, ↓1)
13. Samoa (31.51)

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby sjbret » Thu, 07 Aug 2014, 14:03

Serge in rugby europe forum wrote:Ireland 4th in my world rankings

With two high-level matches won Vs USA and Black Ferns, Ireland climbs to the 4th place.
I think that this place will change next saturday because Ireland will play Kazakhstan (a low-level match) and Canada (5th, just behind them) will play England. And the level of the match is the most important criteria in my rankings.

No change in the 3 first places for England, New Zealand and France.
In the 7 best teams of this World Cup (USA is 6th), Australia only isn't in the top of this rankings, but only because they didn't play any match between August 2010 and June 2014. But, 11th now, they progress slowly but surely.

The rest of the ranking : Wales is still 7th, Spain & South Africa go over Italy (10th now), Scotland is 12th before Samoa and Kazakhstan which goes over Sweden & Netherlands.

http://les-archives-de-serge.over-blog. ... 07224.html

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1 Angleterre / England 4834
2 Nouvelle-Zélande / New Zealand 4777
3 France 4758
4 Irlande / Ireland 4659
5 Canada 4655
6 États-Unis / United States 4592
7 Pays de Galles / Wales 4273
8 Espagne / Spain 4228
9 Afrique du Sud / South Africa 4156
10 Italie / Italy 4115
11 Australie / Australia 4012
12 Écosse / Scotland 3922
13 Samoa 3151
14 Kazakhstan 3081
15 Suède / Sweden 2922
16 Pays-Bas / Netherlands 2885

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby iul » Thu, 07 Aug 2014, 14:29

How are your rankings being calculated? What is the criteria?

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby grande » Thu, 07 Aug 2014, 17:37

iul wrote:How are your rankings being calculated? What is the criteria?


Basically, it's the same as the IRB rankings, but with a different way for on-boarding new teams.

If a new team plays a ranked team and wins, the teams initial ranking is ( ranked team + 5 ), but if they lose it is ( ranked team - 5 ).

This had an unfortunate side effect: Uganda played against a high-ranked South Africa and lost, so were given the initial ranking of 29.75. Then, they were beaten twice by Kenya, the first time being Kenya's initial ranking, 34.75, and then again a week later, putting Kenya to 35.05. Kenya is, by my calculations, sitting in 10th place, however because I know this isn't accurate currently, I'm omitting them.

I decided to do this because there were a couple things I didn't like about Serge's ranking.
1. It rewards teams for playing more often.
2. As teams don't play, their ranking is reduced. This problem is evidenced by Australia being artificially low in his rankings.
3. He includes matches played with "A" teams towards the national team ranking.

I feel like a good ranking system should be able to accurately predict who will win. Because of that, I've been keeping track of who he says is ranked higher, vs who I say is ranked higher. Most of them have been the same, however we've had a different higher-ranked team three times so far:

1. Australia vs South Africa (I had Australia higher)
2. United States vs Ireland (He had Ireland higher)
3. Australia vs Wales (I had Australia higher)

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby sjbret » Thu, 07 Aug 2014, 22:13

les-archives-de-serge wrote:Calculation method

For every international match, I attribute since 1871 for men and 1982 for women points to every country as a sum of several elements.
I mainly take into account the match level (generally the points average of the 2 teams before the match, with minima) and the kind of result (400 for a win, 200 for a draw, 100 for a defeat or 0 for a forfeit in an official competition).
But I count too the match venue (0 or 25 at home according to the opponent from the continent or not, 25 in an other country of its own continent, 50 on neutral ground, 75 in a country of the continent of its opponent, 100 or 75 away according to the opponent), the number of scored points and the difference between the number of scored points and the number of scored points by the opponent.
Finally, I add a bonus for WRC (50 in qualifying, 100 in final phase, 150 in play offs and 200 in the final).

There are a few exceptions in this method, in particular when countries play A, B , Emerging, Amateur, Junior, Student, Army, Police or Services teams, even provinces or clubs in official competitions.
In an official competition too, results of A, B, Emerging or Juniors teams can make move marginally the concerned country points, with a specific calculation.
Finally, matches results with « special » teams (British Lions, Barbarians, Nomads, Maoris, Pacific Islanders…) are counted and these teams classified apart.

The points number after the match is equal to the sum of 10% of the match points and 90 % of the points number before the match (possibly 20% and 80% for women's teams who play few or in world cup). This method allows to take less into account surprises and requires regularity in performance to progress. Besides, it favors countries the level of which improves by often playing to the detriment of those who play few, the number moreover decreasing in 2% each year.

Other rankings

I did this men’s rankings (besides a specific ranking for World cups only) because I wasn’t enough satisfied by the official IRB’s ranking which presents according to me many qualities but which, and I regret it, only concerns a restricted number of countries (102 at present). http://www.irb.com/rankings/full.html
The ranking doesn’t take in account the level of the teams which is the main criterion I retain for every match because the IRB’s principle is simple : the winner gains some points, the loser loses them.
It doesn’t take more in account the matches Vs teams I called special, those Vs, especially, not IRB members, even for a tournament organized by an IRB affiliated federation and even those Vs ranked teams but with a more or less than 10 points difference in a ranking from 0 to 100.
Finally, any (rare) introduction in the IRB’s rankings is arbitrarily fixed to the same level (30 points since December 2012, 1st and 40 before), whatever are the previous results of the countries which had to (officially but it wasn’t still the case) have played at least 10 matches to be classified.

http://les-archives-de-serge.over-blog. ... 81530.html (french)
http://les-archives-de-serge.over-blog. ... horComment (english)

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby sjbret » Thu, 07 Aug 2014, 22:39

grande wrote:If a new team plays a ranked team and wins, the teams initial ranking is ( ranked team + 5 ), but if they lose it is ( ranked team - 5 ).
This had an unfortunate side effect: Uganda played against a high-ranked South Africa and lost, so were given the initial ranking of 29.75. Then, they were beaten twice by Kenya, the first time being Kenya's initial ranking, 34.75, and then again a week later, putting Kenya to 35.05. Kenya is, by my calculations, sitting in 10th place, however because I know this isn't accurate currently, I'm omitting them.

In Serge's, the initial ranking is 0 pt.
When Uganda played against South Africa, they were respectively ranked 27th with 889 points and 10th with 3850 points before the game, 24th with 1053 and 10th with 3849 after.
With such a level difference, SA, which played a low-level team, would have to win with more than 60 ground points to have more ranking points but Uganda, which played a very high-level team, won many points, even if they lossed.
When ugs were beaten twice by Kenya, they were respectively ranked 25th with 1032 points and 28th with 884 points before the both games, 26th with 1066 and 25th with 1102 after.
Impossible so to see Kenya too high...

And Australia, which didn't play any XV game during 46 months (!!!!!) went down from 7th place after WRWC 2010 (only but it was already the same case) to 12th before 2014's.
In any sport, it isn't enough to be brilliant in a single competition to be well ranked but it's necessary to be present in the others, what is not the case of Australia in XV women's rugby. But we can recognize that, potentially, they should be in the first ones.
Imagine that USA men, who didn't play any test-match between 1924 and 1976, went down from 9th place to 50th !

Two years for men and one for women were necessary to compile data and to realize multiple tests which allowed to validate the method of Serge's rankings...

But it's always a good thing to have different views about the question. Go on grande, go on Serge and come back Roon Ba !

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby grande » Fri, 08 Aug 2014, 14:27

I got distracted and didn't get Round 2 done in time. Here's Round 3!

Spain vs Samoa

Current Rank (serge): 8th (4228) vs 13th (3151)
Current Rank (grande): 10th (34.40) vs 13th (31.51)

Head To Head

Spain has played Samoa twice before, both times in the 2006 World Cup. Spain won both times, however neither of them were decisive victories. I expect Spain will still come out on top but, as we saw in 2006, just barely.

September 16, 2006: Spain 10-5 Samoa (World Cup 9th Place Playoff)
September 9, 2006: Spain 14-12 Samoa (World Cup pool play)

Spain's Last Five - LLLWW

August 1: 31-5 vs Canada (World Cup Pool A)
August 5: 45-5 vs England (World Cup Pool A)
July 1: 37-3 vs France
April 27, 2013: 38-7 vs Italy (World Cup Qualification)
April 23, 2013: 78-0 vs Netherlands (World Cup Qualification)

Samoa's Last Five - LLLWW

August 1: 65-3 vs England (World Cup Pool A)
August 5: 42-7 vs Samoa (World Cup Pool A)
June 10: 90-12 vs New Zealand
April 27, 2013: 33-14 vs Netherlands (World Cup Qualification)
April 23, 2013: 29-0 vs Sweden (World Cup Qualification)

England vs Canada

Current Rank (serge): 1st (4834) vs 5th (4655)
Current Rank (grande): 3rd (46.76) vs 4th (45.56)

Head To Head

Ireland beating the Black Ferns has thrown the entire tournament into disarray. Both teams had a very good chance to move on, having both picked up bonus points in both their previous games. However, it's now unlikely that both will move on, unless the losing team can come away with both BPs.

This will be the 21st time Canada has faced off versus England; England has won all but two of the previous encounters. Canada has beaten England fairly recently, in the Nations Cup, however that was a weaker English team. England will be missing Thompson, and is starting three uncapped players, but will that be enough? Doubtful. As much as it pains me to say, I'm calling an English victory.

November 13, 2013: England 32-3 Canada
August 10, 2013: Canada 27-13 England (Nations Cup final)
July 30, 2013: Canada 29-25 England (Nations Cup)
August 13, 2011: Canada 19-41 England (Nations Cup final)
August 9, 2011: Canada 10-22 England (Nations Cup final)

England's Last Five - WWWWW

August 1: 65-3 vs Samoa (World Cup Pool A)
August 5: 45-5 vs Spain (World Cup Pool A)
March 16: 24-0 vs Italy
March 7: 35-3 vs Wales
February 22: 17-10 vs Ireland

Canada's Last Five - WWLLW

August 1: 31-5 vs Spain (World Cup Pool A)
August 5: 42-7 vs Samoa (World Cup Pool A)
June 14: 33-21 vs New Zealand
June 10: 16-8 vs New Zealand
June 5: 22-0 vs Australia

Ireland vs Kazakhstan

Current Rank (serge): 4th (4659) vs 14th (3081)
Current Rank (grande): 2nd (48.02) vs 12th (32.06)

Head To Head

Ireland has faced Kazakhstan four times prevously. It may surprise some of you to know Kazakhstan won three of those games. However, those wins were all over 14 years ago, and the landscape of women's rugby has changed a lot in that time. Ireland should win easily.

August 28, 2010: Ireland 37-3 Kazakhstan (World Cup Pool B)
May 10, 2000: Kazakhstan 31-15 Ireland (Women's European Championship)
May 15, 1998: Kazakhstan 26-10 Ireland (World Cup Bowl Final; 9th Place)
May 5, 1998: Kazakhstan 12-6 Ireland (World Cup Pool D)

Ireland's Last Five - WWLWL

August 1: 23-17 vs United States (World Cup Pool B)
August 5: 17-14 vs New Zealand (World Cup Pool B)
March 14: 19-15 vs France (Six Nations)
March 8: 39-0 vs Italy (Six Nations)
February 22: 17-10 vs England (Six Nations)


Kazakhstan's Last Five - LLWWW

August 1: 79-5 vs New Zealand (World Cup Pool B)
August 5: 47-7 vs United States (World Cup Pool B)
May 24: 49-17 vs Japan (ARFU 4 Nations)
May 21: 68-0 vs Singapore (ARFU 4 Nations)
May 18: 13-10 vs Hong Kong (ARFU 4 Nations)

New Zealand vs United States

Current Rank (serge): 2nd (4777) vs 6th (4592)
Current Rank (grande): 1st (49.78) vs 7th (39.98)

Head To Head

Much like Canada vs England, this game is an un-official semi-final. Both teams need a win to even be in the running, and need bonus points to secure a place. This one will be very interesting to watch.

Despite these two teams being fairly big names in Women's Rugby, they've only played each other 7 times, and haven't played at all in the past decade. New Zealand has won 6 of the encounters, with the US's only win in the semi-finals of the 1991 World Cup, which they went on to win.

June 13, 2004: New Zealand 35-0 United States (Churchill Cup)
September 27, 2000: New Zealand 45-0 United States (Canada Cup)
October 19, 1999: New Zealand 65-6 United States (Triangular '99)
May 16, 1998: New Zealand 44-12 United States (World Cup final)
September 11, 1996: New Zealand 88-8 United States (Canada Cup)

New Zealand's Last Five - LWWWW

August 5: 17-14 vs Ireland (World Cup Pool B)
August 1: 79-5 vs Kazakhstan (World Cup Pool B)
June 14: 33-21 vs Canada
June 10: 16-8 vs Canada
June 6: 90-12 vs Samoa

United States' Last Five - WLWLL[b]

August 5: 47-7 vs Kazakhstan (World Cup Pool B)
August 1: 23-17 vs Ireland (World Cup Pool B)
June 28: 10-7 vs Wales
April 19: 14-10 vs Canada
April 15: 51-7 vs Canada

Wales vs South Africa

Current Rank (serge): 7th (4273) vs 9th (4156)
Current Rank (grande): 11th (33.45) vs 8th (35.81)

[b]Head To Head


Two teams looking for their first win. Five previous match-ups, all five in the past decade. Wales has won three of the five, but each one has been fairly close. They played twice in the previous World Cup, South Africa winning in the pool stage, and Wales winning in the 9th place final. Despite this game not meaning much in the terms of the World Cup, it should be a pretty good fixture.

September 5, 2010: Wales 29-17 South Africa (World Cup 9th Place Final)
August 24, 2010: South Africa 15-10 Wales (World Cup Pool A)
April 30, 2005: South Africa 24-9 Wales
June 5, 2004: Wales 16-15 South Africa
May 29, 2004: Wales 8-5 South Africa

Wales' Last Five - LLLWL

August 1: 26-0 vs France (World Cup Pool C)
August 5: 25-3 vs Australia (World Cup Pool C)
June 28: 10-7 vs United States
March 16: 25-0 vs Scotland (Six Nations)
March 7: 35-3 vs Wales (Six Nations)

South Africa's Last Five - LLLW

August 1: 26-3 vs Australia (World Cup Pool C)
August 5: 55-3 vs France (World Cup Pool C)
July 4: 46-8 vs France
July 1: 32-24 vs Nomads
June 28: 20-5 vs Nomads

France vs Australia

Current Rank (serge): 3rd (4758) vs 11th (4012)
Current Rank (grande): 5th (45.53) vs 6th (44.06)

Head To Head

Our third "unofficial semi-final." France should win. They've been the better team so far, and they're playing at home. Personally, I've got a bug up my ass about Australia; I'm angry that they barely played any games between the previous World Cup and now, when I feel like they should be a leader in the sport. Because of that, I hope France fucking annihilates them, but I would be awfully surprised.

Three previous fixtures between this pairing, stretching back to 1998, all three of them during World Cups. Australia won most recently, capturing 3rd place in the 2010 World Cup, but France claimed the previous two matches.

September 5, 2010: Australia 22-8 France (World Cup 3rd Place Match)
September 4, 2006: France 24-10 Australia (World Cup pool play)
May 5, 1998: France 10-8 Australia (World Cup Pool D)

France's Last Five - WWWWW

August 5: 55-3 vs Wales (World Cup Pool C)
August 1: 26-0 vs France (World Cup Pool C)
July 4: 46-8 vs South Africa
July 1: 37-3 vs Spain
March 14: 19-15 vs Ireland (Six Nations)

Australia's Last Five - WWLLW

August 1: 26-3 vs South Africa (World Cup Pool C)
August 5: 25-3 vs Wales (World Cup Pool C)
June 5: 22-0 vs Canada
May 31: 38-3 vs New Zealand
August 28, 2010: 62-0 vs South Africa (2010 World Cup)

Of Note:

- France is currently on the longest winning streak, at 9 matches. The only team close to that is England, at 6 (their last defeat vs France in this year's Six Nations).
- Four teams currently are on three-game losing streaks: Wales, South Africa, Spain, and Samoa. Since those four teams are playing each other, we'll probably have two teams on four game losing streaks very shortly.
- The only match where serge & I have a different higher ranked team is Wales vs South Africa. I'll be watching it closely :)

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby Ser Podrick of Payne » Sat, 09 Aug 2014, 11:51

Half Time: Ireland 14 - 5 Kazakhstan

A bit tighter than expected but Ireland should pull away more in the 2nd half. I guess they might be resting some players but were still banking on a BP win even though it's a luxury they don't need.

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby ormond lad » Sat, 09 Aug 2014, 13:44

Ser Podrick of Payne wrote:Half Time: Ireland 14 - 5 Kazakhstan

A bit tighter than expected but Ireland should pull away more in the 2nd half. I guess they might be resting some players but were still banking on a BP win even though it's a luxury they don't need.
Ireland won 40-5
Ireland made 10 changes from the New Zealand game
Kazakstan were v physical and took a while to wear down but good performance from Ireland
Just have to wait on the other games to see who we face in the semis

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby grande » Sat, 09 Aug 2014, 13:56

Canada really needs to stop giving away penalties at every ruck.

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby grande » Sat, 09 Aug 2014, 14:22

Harvey's kicking has been disappointing today. She was so good the previous two games!

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby rampage » Sat, 09 Aug 2014, 14:23

Canada still up 5-3. England unlucky, dropping the ball twice from smart cross field kicks, but Canada are dominating the scrums and breakdown.

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby grande » Sat, 09 Aug 2014, 14:30

England winning 6-5 at half.

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby rampage » Sat, 09 Aug 2014, 14:44

Canada score - 10-6 with a kick to come

Missed - score stays at Canada 10, England 6

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby rampage » Sat, 09 Aug 2014, 14:57

England score a push-over try - England 11 Canada 10 (kick to come)

Kick successful - England 13 Canada 10

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby rampage » Sat, 09 Aug 2014, 15:18

Canada tie it up at 13 with 7 to play, and NZ must be getting nervous

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Re: 2014 Women's Rugby World Cup

Postby rampage » Sat, 09 Aug 2014, 15:27

The Black Ferns are out! Canada and England draw, taking both to 12 points, out of reach from NZ and USA.

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