Tier 2 & 3 Rugby Forum

Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby RugbyLiebe » Wed, 10 Oct 2018, 07:38

carbonero wrote:
RWC qualification shouldn't be part of the criteria. What happens with Romania now? Or even Canada?


Nothing. This is about how you become a member of the WR-council, not how you lose your membership.
Last edited by RugbyLiebe on Wed, 10 Oct 2018, 07:51, edited 1 time in total.
How to grow rugby worldwide?
Look at the world ranking in July. Teams ranked 1-10 have to play one team from 11-20 (they don't play in a regular competition) away the next year. 11-20 play 21-30 away and so on. Yes, it really is that simple.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby RugbyLiebe » Wed, 10 Oct 2018, 07:45

Tobar wrote:
Yeah after college the only truly competitive adult leagues I know of are basketball leagues. Most people just play pickup basketball (my 60 year old dad still does this) but there are leagues, especially in cities. There are also soccer and softball leagues, both coed and men/women only. Softball can get competitive but it’s still very social, same with soccer for the most part. There are almost no amateur football leagues which is why I started playing rugby.


So how did this evolve that way? That's kind of strange. My guess would be that the lack of socialized healthcare (if you get injured in whatever sport you do in Germany, you are fully covered i.e., even if it was base jumping). I mean every other first world country has had it for decades if not centuries and all have a lot of competitive amateur sports in common.

In Bavaria there are i.e. up to 13 levels (depends on the state) in soccer. In theory your team could reach the 1. Bundesliga if you finish first for 12 years in a row. We also have this "competitive" social leagues. One in Munich has i.e. 4 levels with over 100 teams. Is this really only because of the pro set-up in the USA together with distances that forces to create those closed-sop pro leagues early?
How to grow rugby worldwide?
Look at the world ranking in July. Teams ranked 1-10 have to play one team from 11-20 (they don't play in a regular competition) away the next year. 11-20 play 21-30 away and so on. Yes, it really is that simple.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Figaro » Wed, 10 Oct 2018, 07:57

4N wrote:That’s an interesting suggestion. Could see them doing at least as well as Jersey (English Championship).


It always surprises me that places like the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man weren't more interested in having their own sports teams. After all they've just as much political autonomy as many places which do have their own teams (e.g. Gibraltar), and I can't see anyone really objecting to them having teams.

I wonder whether, if Scotland became independent and thus the idea of Britain/the UK changes or fades, this will change.

For now, I know that in football Channel Islanders are allowed to represent any UK nation - presumably it's the same in Rugby.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Tobar » Wed, 10 Oct 2018, 16:35

RugbyLiebe wrote:
Tobar wrote:
Yeah after college the only truly competitive adult leagues I know of are basketball leagues. Most people just play pickup basketball (my 60 year old dad still does this) but there are leagues, especially in cities. There are also soccer and softball leagues, both coed and men/women only. Softball can get competitive but it’s still very social, same with soccer for the most part. There are almost no amateur football leagues which is why I started playing rugby.


So how did this evolve that way? That's kind of strange. My guess would be that the lack of socialized healthcare (if you get injured in whatever sport you do in Germany, you are fully covered i.e., even if it was base jumping). I mean every other first world country has had it for decades if not centuries and all have a lot of competitive amateur sports in common.

In Bavaria there are i.e. up to 13 levels (depends on the state) in soccer. In theory your team could reach the 1. Bundesliga if you finish first for 12 years in a row. We also have this "competitive" social leagues. One in Munich has i.e. 4 levels with over 100 teams. Is this really only because of the pro set-up in the USA together with distances that forces to create those closed-sop pro leagues early?


I can think of a couple of things that cause this but those 2 that you listed (healthcare and closed shops) definitely add to it.

-Work-life balance can be tough. My first job was from 8:30 to 5:30 and the CEO guilt tripped us many times for leaving at 5:30 exactly. Not all jobs are like this though, my current job lets me come in any time before 10 and leave at 5, just not every single day. Work hours are generally longer here than in European countries.

-Healthcare can definitely add to it, though I don't think this affects you that much until you get to your later 20s/early 30s. When you just graduate from college you are either on your parents' plan until 26 or you feel invincible so it doesn't matter. But I can definitely see someone who is starting a family without good healthcare being concerned about getting injured.

-The amount of sports in this country. We have 4 major sports (not including soccer) so splitting up potential players probably doesn't help. We do have around 4 times as many people as Germany so maybe this shouldn't make much of a difference though. Certain areas like Texas or California will have more built out adult amateur leagues for sports like football and I'm sure they take it really seriously. In my experience in the NYC area, it's mostly pickup games or independent sports leagues where you sign up a team and can be either very social or relatively competitive.

-Having a closed pro league. This is probably one of the bigger causes of a lack of adult sports leagues. Theoretically a team could go all the way from the lowest league to the highest in Germany but that can't happen. I think this leads more people to focus on their personal goals of making an NFL or NBA team vs advancing your team to make it to the next level. You also have a longer history of club sports but the idea of an actual neighborhood club for sports isn't very common here. There are plenty of outlets for people to play sports from youth to adult but I think it's usually tied to a school or a general rec association. For example, when I was a kid (5-14) my basketball and baseball teams were just selected from the overall pool of kids in the area rather than a specific club. Once we hit high school it was usually just the HS team (but basketball actually managed to get a rec league separate from the school team). Outside of the major leagues, the next closest thing is usually college which also is very high level and only available to college students. You'd think though that with all of these professional caliber players out of college that they would be trying to play somewhere but I guess not.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Coloradoan » Wed, 10 Oct 2018, 17:36

RugbyLiebe wrote:
Tobar wrote:
Yeah after college the only truly competitive adult leagues I know of are basketball leagues. Most people just play pickup basketball (my 60 year old dad still does this) but there are leagues, especially in cities. There are also soccer and softball leagues, both coed and men/women only. Softball can get competitive but it’s still very social, same with soccer for the most part. There are almost no amateur football leagues which is why I started playing rugby.


So how did this evolve that way? That's kind of strange. My guess would be that the lack of socialized healthcare (if you get injured in whatever sport you do in Germany, you are fully covered i.e., even if it was base jumping). I mean every other first world country has had it for decades if not centuries and all have a lot of competitive amateur sports in common.

In Bavaria there are i.e. up to 13 levels (depends on the state) in soccer. In theory your team could reach the 1. Bundesliga if you finish first for 12 years in a row. We also have this "competitive" social leagues. One in Munich has i.e. 4 levels with over 100 teams. Is this really only because of the pro set-up in the USA together with distances that forces to create those closed-sop pro leagues early?


Don't think socialized health care has much to do with it at all. The development of sporting culture in the US and Europe predates strong socialized medicine in most places. Sporting culture in the UK and Europe developed around the town or the area of the city you were in. Sports clubs popped up and people from that area supported them. In the US, it developed around the school: high school and university. College football and basketball were much bigger than their professional counterparts until at least the 1960s, if not later. Because of being organized around the school rather than the town, if you weren't good enough to play for your university, you stopped playing altogether.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby RugbyLiebe » Wed, 10 Oct 2018, 17:55

Oh and I forgot you basically get no holidays in the USA. Probably also adds to the work-life-balance and you use more of your time during workdays for something different. Atm I have 30 + the 12-14 public holidays in my state.
Also team sports are at the moment having more and more problems to gather people. 20 years ago the shops were open 8-18:30 weekdays and 8-12:30 on a saturday.
Now it is Monday-Saturday 7-20h (or 22h depends on the state). So if you work in a shop you basically can't do a team sport anymore. The freedom of free shopping comes at a heavy price. Sundays still all shops are closed.
Never realised this was an issue, until a British mum in my son's kindergarten told me that she loves Germany for the family only time on sunday.

But we moved to far away from rugby now. Enjoyed the discussion though.
How to grow rugby worldwide?
Look at the world ranking in July. Teams ranked 1-10 have to play one team from 11-20 (they don't play in a regular competition) away the next year. 11-20 play 21-30 away and so on. Yes, it really is that simple.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby TheStroBro » Wed, 10 Oct 2018, 18:25

RugbyLiebe wrote:
Tobar wrote:
Yeah after college the only truly competitive adult leagues I know of are basketball leagues. Most people just play pickup basketball (my 60 year old dad still does this) but there are leagues, especially in cities. There are also soccer and softball leagues, both coed and men/women only. Softball can get competitive but it’s still very social, same with soccer for the most part. There are almost no amateur football leagues which is why I started playing rugby.


So how did this evolve that way? That's kind of strange. My guess would be that the lack of socialized healthcare (if you get injured in whatever sport you do in Germany, you are fully covered i.e., even if it was base jumping). I mean every other first world country has had it for decades if not centuries and all have a lot of competitive amateur sports in common.

In Bavaria there are i.e. up to 13 levels (depends on the state) in soccer. In theory your team could reach the 1. Bundesliga if you finish first for 12 years in a row. We also have this "competitive" social leagues. One in Munich has i.e. 4 levels with over 100 teams. Is this really only because of the pro set-up in the USA together with distances that forces to create those closed-sop pro leagues early?


We had pretty strong club system when it came to soccer before the MLS, it was even stronger before the NASL.

When it comes to competitive recreation sports, it just evolved that way over time. The professionals were professional and working professionals had less time to devote to sport. We have semi-pro football teams, but there are no amateur leagues whatsoever. There are amateur competitive baseball teams, but that's more expensive than amateur rugby...and none of those guys are even good enough to make it through to the minors. Healthcare has little to do with it.

What is sad is the demise of Armed Services athletics, those teams in the 40s-50s were good enough to be pre-season games for the likes of MLB teams. Now you'll get very few making it through to Olympic sports.

Coloradoan wrote:
Don't think socialized health care has much to do with it at all. The development of sporting culture in the US and Europe predates strong socialized medicine in most places. Sporting culture in the UK and Europe developed around the town or the area of the city you were in. Sports clubs popped up and people from that area supported them. In the US, it developed around the school: high school and university. College football and basketball were much bigger than their professional counterparts until at least the 1960s, if not later. Because of being organized around the school rather than the town, if you weren't good enough to play for your university, you stopped playing altogether.


This point here is extremely significant. College Football today has regained it's prominence in the marketplace, but now you have even more fans of the game than when College Football was bigger than the NFL.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby ihateblazers » Wed, 10 Oct 2018, 23:26

It's strange how the strength of rugby/soccer is measured by registered players in a lot places. How do over 20 year old men/women beer league players add to the system exactly apart from paying their subs? I get that these players are also fans and some will eventually become coaches, referees and volunteers but I think if you have the right youth structures and development pathway in place you can develop the above in a more efficient manner anyway.

I always groan when I read an article about how rugby is losing popularity in a country (t1 or t2/3) because less adults are playing, show me the youth figures instead.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby RugbyLiebe » Thu, 11 Oct 2018, 08:34

ihateblazers wrote:It's strange how the strength of rugby/soccer is measured by registered players in a lot places. How do over 20 year old men/women beer league players add to the system exactly apart from paying their subs? I get that these players are also fans and some will eventually become coaches, referees and volunteers but I think if you have the right youth structures and development pathway in place you can develop the above in a more efficient manner anyway.

I always groan when I read an article about how rugby is losing popularity in a country (t1 or t2/3) because less adults are playing, show me the youth figures instead.


Interesting point of view. I think you are partially right. Especially with soccer, where a 10 year gets his back whiped by a designated employee when he plays soccer for an academy. And nowadays players who weren't in a famous club's academy around the age of 10, seem to not become pro anymore.

But rugby doesn't have the money to introduce this kind of professionality.

But I am quite sure that registered players do also a lot for development, not only as the important refs, coaches, as you rightfully stated. When those youngsters come up in the adult system, who do they play against? Half of the time against semi-pros and then half of the games against a beer-team? They higher and the deeper the adult level is, the better development is for young players get in their critical years. Because if you have 5,6 or 8,9 levels you simply don't play against beer-teams as a young hopeful. And that's the most important years, as the differences between U16 and U18 are actually not that different between tier1 and tier2.

Still we see that the Georgian way seems to be exactly what you described, also the Romanian way.
How to grow rugby worldwide?
Look at the world ranking in July. Teams ranked 1-10 have to play one team from 11-20 (they don't play in a regular competition) away the next year. 11-20 play 21-30 away and so on. Yes, it really is that simple.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby welshdragon2000 » Wed, 04 Sep 2019, 16:09

Any thoughts on what we can expect on some of the upcoming nations in the coming years? I’m just thinking of Spain with a lot of young players in French and English academies and can we expect them to break top 15? Same with Uruguay?
What about USA? Some good players there, could they be tier 1 in 10 years?

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Armchair Fan » Wed, 04 Sep 2019, 16:15

To break into the Top 15 first we should qualify for a ****** RWC.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby victorsra » Wed, 04 Sep 2019, 17:51

Brazil will keep improving in 2020, I'm sure. I am confident we can knock the Top 20's door. However 2020 is CBRu's election and that will be a problem. My doubts and fears are about 2021.
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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby fullbackace » Wed, 04 Sep 2019, 18:07

The higher the nations push, slower the progress gets and harder everyone has to work. I feel like in a decade or two Tier 2 will be far more competitive than Tier 1. A lot more nations will reach Tier 2 level, Some are going to reach Tier 1.5 but it's unlikely anyone actually gets into T1 without a proper club in a high-level championship.
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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby rey200 » Wed, 04 Sep 2019, 18:29

My hope: more professional leagues and more professional setups will lead to more "hardened" players, more players committed to rugby. Player release should be a lesser problem there.

My fear: more professional opportunities for NZ or SA players. While I'm confident we'll see even more NZ born players playing for other countries, I don't know if this really is the path rugby should follow.
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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby welshdragon2000 » Wed, 04 Sep 2019, 20:16

victorsra wrote:Brazil will keep improving in 2020, I'm sure. I am confident we can knock the Top 20's door. However 2020 is CBRu's election and that will be a problem. My doubts and fears are about 2021.


What about the low level at U20 coming through? Isn't that a worry in the longer term?

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby mcv_T2 » Wed, 04 Sep 2019, 20:41

welshdragon2000 wrote:
victorsra wrote:Brazil will keep improving in 2020, I'm sure. I am confident we can knock the Top 20's door. However 2020 is CBRu's election and that will be a problem. My doubts and fears are about 2021.


What about the low level at U20 coming through? Isn't that a worry in the longer term?


Well, that is a complex question. Guess this current brazilian U20 is the best generation we've ever had. I understand they are horrible when viewed from the perspective of a welsh, but the fact is that Brazil has never had young people playing rugby at an early age. Until recently, most players used to be welcomed to rugby and began to play around 17/18 years. So it's impossible to get a good U20 team now. But we currently have more (compared to the past) clubs forming U16 teams and even U14 (case of clubs of the state of São Paulo). That is not much, but it is a new thing here and I think it is a step further.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby victorsra » Wed, 04 Sep 2019, 21:16

mcv_T2 wrote:
welshdragon2000 wrote:
victorsra wrote:Brazil will keep improving in 2020, I'm sure. I am confident we can knock the Top 20's door. However 2020 is CBRu's election and that will be a problem. My doubts and fears are about 2021.


What about the low level at U20 coming through? Isn't that a worry in the longer term?


Well, that is a complex question. Guess this current brazilian U20 is the best generation we've ever had. I understand they are horrible when viewed from the perspective of a welsh, but the fact is that Brazil has never had young people playing rugby at an early age. Until recently, most players used to be welcomed to rugby and began to play around 17/18 years. So it's impossible to get a good U20 team now. But we currently have more (compared to the past) clubs forming U16 teams and even U14 (case of clubs of the state of São Paulo). That is not much, but it is a new thing here and I think it is a step further.


I woudn't say "the best generation". They are the better trained, the first one to have a professional environment with a high performance program. Which is different from being "the best generation".

Brazilian club rugby is definitly not in good shape in junior rugby. It is only São Paulo improving (but in the 1980s we had more junior playing rugby XV than now anyway). São Paulo Rugby Union did the right thing last year with a new project for junior rugby with the right people behind it. Paraná also had some improvements. The other states are really struggling, with some living probably the worst recent momment.
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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Armchair Fan » Wed, 04 Sep 2019, 21:23

victorsra wrote:Brazilian club rugby is definitly not in good shape in junior rugby. It is only São Paulo improving (but in the 1980s we had more junior playing rugby XV than now anyway).

To be honest it's the case of many countries. It's really sad to have a look at FIRA junior tournaments and watch the kind of national teams that took part in back then. We've lost two decades.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby Tobar » Wed, 04 Sep 2019, 21:25

rey200 wrote:My hope: more professional leagues and more professional setups will lead to more "hardened" players, more players committed to rugby. Player release should be a lesser problem there.

My fear: more professional opportunities for NZ or SA players. While I'm confident we'll see even more NZ born players playing for other countries, I don't know if this really is the path rugby should follow.


Is that a real fear? Even if a league is absurdly high at around 70% NZ/SA players that still results in more professional players in that country than ever. There are only so many “mercenaries” that are good enough to fill up these squads.

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Re: Predictions for tier 2/3 sides in 2020s

Postby victorsra » Wed, 04 Sep 2019, 21:27

Armchair Fan wrote:
victorsra wrote:Brazilian club rugby is definitly not in good shape in junior rugby. It is only São Paulo improving (but in the 1980s we had more junior playing rugby XV than now anyway).

To be honest it's the case of many countries. It's really sad to have a look at FIRA junior tournaments and watch the kind of national teams that took part in back then. We've lost two decades.

I'm sure we aren't special :lol:
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