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2023 Draw, Thoughts?

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2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby snapper37 » Sat, 12 Dec 2020, 23:06

The 20 teams, qualified and qualifiers, were seeded thus (world ranking as of 1 January 2020):

Band 1
South Africa (1)
New Zealand (2)
England (3)
Wales (4)

Band 2
Ireland (5)
Australia (6)
France (7)
Japan (8)

Band 3
Scotland (9)
Argentina (10)
Fiji (11)
Italy (12)

Band 4
Oceania 1
Europe 1
Americas 1
Asia/Pacific 1

Band 5
Africa 1
Europe 2
Americas 2
Final Qualifier Winner

Guesses ?

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby Armchair Fan » Sat, 12 Dec 2020, 23:11

A Wales/Japan/Italy pool seems like be the best option for a Tier 2 to reach quarterfinals aside from Fiji being drawn instead of Italy there.

For any team not used to reach RWC (basically Repechage winner) New Zealand/France/Argentina would be a huge media exposure boost.

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby ficcp » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 02:29

I hope the Force of Randomness will not allow the outcome of Wales/Japan in the same group. If the relative ranking does not change too much in 33 month, that group would produce quarter finalists weaker than the 3 other groups because nor Wales is really among the best four neither Japan is really among the best eight.
Wales with Ireland, France or Australia would be a more competitive group.

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby thatrugbyguy » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 03:38

It's a joke the draw is being done this early. There's literally no reason for it to be done now. But we are stuck with it and as is mentioned above it runs the risk of making one of the most lopsided draws in rugby world cup history. You could have on one hand Wales, Japan and Italy all in one pool, and New Zealand, Australia and Argentina in another, as well as any England, France and Scotland grouped together also. South Africa, Ireland and Fiji would be the only pool likely to be remain balanced in 3 years time.

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby The Do » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 04:47

Thoughts??

This draw is 2 years too early

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby Canalina » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 07:33

For Italy I hope in a New Zealand-France (or Japan)-Italy-Europe1 (or Oceania1)-Europe2 pool

And I fear an England-Ireland-Italy-Americas 1-Americas2 pool

I know that we are going to meet the All Blacks several times next year but it's a "tradition" to finish in their pool at the RWC and I would like it happened again, while to meet again England or Wales like in the 6N or in the Autumn Cup would be a bit boring.
And I'd like to see Italy versus Samoa and Tonga or versus the REC nations, which we rarely meet

There's already the live stream link

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby Rebus » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 07:51

Am basing this on the presumption that the top 3 places in each group automatically qualify for the 2027 world cup , but would like to see a group where the Top band 4 team is drawn against Italy.
Nothing against Italy , but I see them as the weakest team in Band 3 and the weakest team in the 6 nations. If they are beaten by a Band 4 team and have to earn qualification , I am keen to see how World Rugby will insist on qualification matches to take place bearing in mind they do not play in the REC which is used as a qualifying tournament.

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby dwpeate » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 08:04

Rebus wrote:Am basing this on the presumption that the top 3 places in each group automatically qualify for the 2027 world cup , but would like to see a group where the Top band 4 team is drawn against Italy.
Nothing against Italy , but I see them as the weakest team in Band 3 and the weakest team in the 6 nations. If they are beaten by a Band 4 team and have to earn qualification , I am keen to see how World Rugby will insist on qualification matches to take place bearing in mind they do not play in the REC which is used as a qualifying tournament.


I've thought similar things to be honest.
Meanwhile, France and Fiji together would be tasty

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby thatrugbyguy » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 10:56

We could actually see a Band 4 team reach the knockout stage. If Tonga or Samoa were grouped with a pool of Wales, Japan and Italy then they are really going to fancy their chances of making it to the knockout stage. Throw in the USA from band 5 and you've got an extraordinarily unpredictable pool, probably the most unpredictable in World Cup history, but it would be by virtue of it having the weakest set of teams. But there's also the possibility that we get one of the most lopsided pools as well. Let's say New Zealand, Japan, Italy, Georgia and Namibia are all in the same pool, the All Blacks would walk through it.

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby sk 88 » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 11:18

Armchair Fan wrote:A Wales/Japan/Italy pool seems like be the best option for a Tier 2 to reach quarterfinals aside from Fiji being drawn instead of Italy there.

For any team not used to reach RWC (basically Repechage winner) New Zealand/France/Argentina would be a huge media exposure boost.


So much can change in 3 years, particularly for Ireland, Wales and Scotland that who is "good" to get in that group is almost impossible to predict. Will Pivac turn it around? Limp on? Get sacked and they get a coach who can get more from them in? Will Ireland replace Sexton? They've had 20 years with a great fly half but I can't see one behind a very old Sexton at the moment. Similarly their scum half looks less good than they've been used to. They may struggle even with Leinster's production line up from without half backs to guide them round the field. Scotland look to be building up a decent team to me, Townsend just hasn't put them all out of the field at once often enough.

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby thatrugbyguy » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 11:39

We're also seeing some rebuilding with the RC teams. All three teams that played this year were inconsistent to say the least. Who knows where any of them will be in 3 years time.

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby ficcp » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 14:01

sk 88 wrote:
Armchair Fan wrote:A Wales/Japan/Italy pool seems like be the best option for a Tier 2 to reach quarterfinals aside from Fiji being drawn instead of Italy there.

For any team not used to reach RWC (basically Repechage winner) New Zealand/France/Argentina would be a huge media exposure boost.


So much can change in 3 years, particularly for Ireland, Wales and Scotland that who is "good" to get in that group is almost impossible to predict. Will Pivac turn it around? Limp on? Get sacked and they get a coach who can get more from them in? Will Ireland replace Sexton? They've had 20 years with a great fly half but I can't see one behind a very old Sexton at the moment. Similarly their scum half looks less good than they've been used to. They may struggle even with Leinster's production line up from without half backs to guide them round the field. Scotland look to be building up a decent team to me, Townsend just hasn't put them all out of the field at once often enough.


That is the point. If so much can change for most of the teams in 3 years, what is the need to use a photograph taken almost 4 years before (December 2019)the tournament for the final draw? I still do not know the reason behind this policy. A wrong combination of teams could hurt hugely the tournament.

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby Figaro » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 14:09

thatrugbyguy wrote:We could actually see a Band 4 team reach the knockout stage. If Tonga or Samoa were grouped with a pool of Wales, Japan and Italy then they are really going to fancy their chances of making it to the knockout stage. Throw in the USA from band 5 and you've got an extraordinarily unpredictable pool, probably the most unpredictable in World Cup history, but it would be by virtue of it having the weakest set of teams. But there's also the possibility that we get one of the most lopsided pools as well. Let's say New Zealand, Japan, Italy, Georgia and Namibia are all in the same pool, the All Blacks would walk through it.


Second place in that pool would still be fairly competitive, though I wouldn't really expect Japan or Italy to lose to Georgia let alone Namibia these days.

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby victorsra » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 14:59

snapper37 wrote:The 20 teams, qualified and qualifiers, were seeded thus (world ranking as of 1 January 2020):

Band 1
South Africa (1)
New Zealand (2)
England (3)
Wales (4)

Band 2
Ireland (5)
Australia (6)
France (7)
Japan (8)

Band 3
Scotland (9)
Argentina (10)
Fiji (11)
Italy (12)

Band 4
Oceania 1
Europe 1
Americas 1
Asia/Pacific 1

Band 5
Africa 1
Europe 2
Americas 2
Final Qualifier Winner

Guesses ?


World Rugby changed the bands:
https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/pool-draw

It is:

Band 1 - South Africa, New Zealand, England, Wales
Band 2 - Ireland, France, Australia, Japan
Band 3 - Scotland, Argentina, Fiji and Italy
Band 4 - Americas 1, Americas 2, Europe 1, Europe 2
Band 5 - Africa 1, Oceania 1, Asia / Pacific 1, Final Qualifier Winner

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby ficcp » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 15:19

So, qualified teams from the Americas can not be in the same group, neither can be qualified teams from Europe. A better geographical distribution which will allow more diversity within the groups.

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby Canalina » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 15:20

I suppose it's to make not the two REC teams and the two Americas teams finishing in the same pool. Correct decision, I think

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby victorsra » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 15:37

Well, yes, but it still can happen if the Repechage team is from the Americas. Same thing for Europe.

They are in fact trying to prevent 3 REC teams of 3 ARC (RIP) teams in the same group.

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby Armchair Fan » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 16:21

victorsra wrote:
World Rugby changed the bands:
https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/pool-draw

It is:

Band 1 - South Africa, New Zealand, England, Wales
Band 2 - Ireland, France, Australia, Japan
Band 3 - Scotland, Argentina, Fiji and Italy
Band 4 - Americas 1, Americas 2, Europe 1, Europe 2
Band 5 - Africa 1, Oceania 1, Asia / Pacific 1, Final Qualifier Winner

WTF, that link is from 09/12, yet on 11/12 they kept publishing on social media the previous bands:
https://twitter.com/rugbyworldcup/statu ... 4635197446

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby victorsra » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 16:48

We'll find out what is the right one tomorrow :lol:

Man, i'm tired of pointing out their mistakes..... it is all the time.

BTW, Solomon Islands still in North America :oops:

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby Canalina » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 17:11

I think you should write United Nations asking them to put Solomon Islands in North America; you would have some more chance of success :)

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby Rebus » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 17:55

ficcp wrote:So, qualified teams from the Americas can not be in the same group, neither can be qualified teams from Europe. A better geographical distribution which will allow more diversity within the groups.


A change like this could result in something like SA , Australia , Italy , Georgia and Tonga , Italy could end up being the lowest ranked team in their group

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby victorsra » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 18:23

Could, but I doubt, honestly. Italy beat Georgia in their last senior and U20s matches. I support Georgia's inclusion in an expanded 7N (in fact, I support expansion together with a relegation/promotion system, not just a Georgia inclusion), but Italy is definitly not behind them atm.

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby Armchair Fan » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 18:44

EDIT: BS
Last edited by Armchair Fan on Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 22:10, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby victorsra » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 18:46

I also can't understand why people cheer against Italy. I think most people don't understand that Italy CAN'T simply be kicked out of the 6N, as they are one of the stakeowner of the 6N Ltd. Therefore, Italy's bad results don't help T2 rugby.

In fact, Italy's bad results are an argument AGAINST expansion in the T1s eyes, as it "proves" expansion doesn't worth. T2 people should cheer FOR Italy, not against them. If Italy was in good shape, that would be a real argument in favour of expansion.

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Re: 2023 Draw, Thoughts?

Postby BigG » Sun, 13 Dec 2020, 19:18

I highly respect your predictions. Oooh, I love that.
However we have about 32 months ahead.

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