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Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby victorsra » Wed, 21 Oct 2020, 20:57

iul wrote:The likeliest way the 6N will expand is by selling franchises. If some European nation with a half decent national team would offer them a few hundred million euros for an equal share and a spot in the league they might accept.

Yes, if there is money, they'll expand. But they'll have to deal with clubs about the calendar anyway. More money in the 6N also means clubs even more annoyed wanting a piece of it.

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby ficcp » Thu, 22 Oct 2020, 14:33

The addition of SAF would bring a lot of additional cash...also for the clubs and players. I think the "maximum of 6 weekly matches in a row" rule can be relaxed a bit.

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby sk 88 » Thu, 22 Oct 2020, 19:21

Would it though?

from who? We're told that the reason SA can't play a domestic league is a lack of a strong currency ... so who is providing the cash if they come north?

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby Chester-Donnelly » Thu, 22 Oct 2020, 20:46

sk 88 wrote:Would it though?

from who? We're told that the reason SA can't play a domestic league is a lack of a strong currency ... so who is providing the cash if they come north?


I'm not sure, but I think having South African teams makes it more valuable in England for example, and any other country that has a market for professional club rugby.

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby ficcp » Thu, 22 Oct 2020, 22:10

sk 88 wrote:Would it though?

from who? We're told that the reason SA can't play a domestic league is a lack of a strong currency ... so who is providing the cash if they come north?

Higher Broadcasting rigths and a better sale of tickets.

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby Immenso » Thu, 22 Oct 2020, 23:15

If we make the assumption that South Africa is a rugby economy that can support 4 full time pro teams, it is the same size as Wales and Ireland.

If 6 Nations central revenue is shared evenly, you could argue the France and England markets already subsidise the other 4.

If shared evenly, each nation gets 16.66% revenue each. Adding South Africa would need to increase the revenue by 17% or more to make it worthwhile for the others.
Last edited by Immenso on Fri, 23 Oct 2020, 03:25, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby ficcp » Fri, 23 Oct 2020, 02:04

SAF Union is not financially very helthy , is quite true, but they are the World champion until 2023. It would bring a strong sportive challenge to the other teams as it happened in the RCH.

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby Chester-Donnelly » Fri, 23 Oct 2020, 03:30

South Africa's economy is bigger than that of Scotland and Wales, and a bit smaller than Ireland's.

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby Figaro » Fri, 23 Oct 2020, 08:41

Chester-Donnelly wrote:South Africa's economy is bigger than that of Scotland and Wales, and a bit smaller than Ireland's.


Immenso said Rugby economy. That's not the same as the economy in a broader sense. China has a much bigger economy than Wales, but a smaller rugby economy.

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby RugbyLiebe » Fri, 23 Oct 2020, 09:01

Immenso wrote:If we make the assumption that South Africa is a rugby economy that can support 4 full time pro teams, it is the same size as Wales and Ireland.

If 6 Nations central revenue is shared evenly, you could argue the France and England markets already subsidise the other 4.

If shared evenly, each nation gets 16.66% revenue each. Adding South Africa would need to increase the revenue by 17% or more to make it worthwhile for the others.


Small addition to your spot on post: you can't really compare SAF with Wales or even Ireland, as they are no tv markets on their own or just partially (Ireland 5 million, rest UK tv market), Wales has only 3,1 Million and is fully UK.

About South African tv money. Here are numbers from 2014.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/rugby-unio ... zreu2.html

In 2010 South Africa got 370 Mio Euro for 5 years => 74 million per year. If you compare 2015 onwards to 2010, that's a 2:1-split for international games to club rugby.
So probably about 50 million Euro per season for national team games.

The UK tv deal is worth 100 million Euros , but split between 3,5-4 federations from the same market. The French tv deal secures 30 million per year until 2022. The irish tv deal is worth 5 million Euro per year. If those numbers stay about the same, the indeed to add value over the 17% you correctly calculated, but at least 27%.
How to grow rugby worldwide?
Look at the world ranking in July. Teams ranked 1-10 have to play one team from 11-20 (they don't play in a regular competition) away the next year. 11-20 play 21-30 away and so on. Yes, it really is that simple.

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby Chester-Donnelly » Fri, 23 Oct 2020, 11:07

Figaro wrote:
Chester-Donnelly wrote:South Africa's economy is bigger than that of Scotland and Wales, and a bit smaller than Ireland's.


Immenso said Rugby economy. That's not the same as the economy in a broader sense. China has a much bigger economy than Wales, but a smaller rugby economy.


You can compare Ireland, Wales and South Africa because in those countries rugby is pretty much the biggest professional team sport.

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby victorsra » Fri, 23 Oct 2020, 13:43

RugbyLiebe wrote:
Immenso wrote:If we make the assumption that South Africa is a rugby economy that can support 4 full time pro teams, it is the same size as Wales and Ireland.

If 6 Nations central revenue is shared evenly, you could argue the France and England markets already subsidise the other 4.

If shared evenly, each nation gets 16.66% revenue each. Adding South Africa would need to increase the revenue by 17% or more to make it worthwhile for the others.


Small addition to your spot on post: you can't really compare SAF with Wales or even Ireland, as they are no tv markets on their own or just partially (Ireland 5 million, rest UK tv market), Wales has only 3,1 Million and is fully UK.

About South African tv money. Here are numbers from 2014.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/rugby-unio ... zreu2.html

In 2010 South Africa got 370 Mio Euro for 5 years => 74 million per year. If you compare 2015 onwards to 2010, that's a 2:1-split for international games to club rugby.
So probably about 50 million Euro per season for national team games.

The UK tv deal is worth 100 million Euros , but split between 3,5-4 federations from the same market. The French tv deal secures 30 million per year until 2022. The irish tv deal is worth 5 million Euro per year. If those numbers stay about the same, the indeed to add value over the 17% you correctly calculated, but at least 27%.


But it also means more teams involved. But anyway, can we expect like 20% increase in revenues for each team? That is significant.

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby dropkick » Sat, 24 Oct 2020, 07:45

Its hard to know how tv companies value events. Well, its easy if you have access to all the data like they do but for us outside that bubble, we can only guess.


In terms of Pro16 and 7 nations I think the value the South Africans will bring will differ.
I dont think SA could add much value to the 6 nations other than their own money to the pot. The 6 nations is a big event as it is and I dont think many more people in Europe will watch it because SA is in it.

The SA economy is also becoming more African by the year and if the tournament is expanded there's a danger of viewer fatigue. You also have the English and French clubs who won't be happy and will demand compensation from the RFU and FFR. It could become a mess. You're also messing with tradition.


The Pro16 is very different. Leaving aside the money SA will bring, the league is nowhere near where it could be and the big 4 SA teams will transform the overall quality of the league overnight. Add to that the extra money the teams will have to sign players, you should also see better quality players throughout the league which will add to the quality and more people will want to watch. A virtuous circle of events POTENTIALLY.


It will be much better viewing. From an Irish audience point of view, our 4 teams played 18 games per season against very weak opposition (Dragons, Zebre, kings) which made those matches non events. The SA teams coming combined with the expected format change will mean 8 non events (dragons and zebre). Automatically getting rid of 10 poor matches. And that's just against the bottom teams.


So a better spectacle for the pro16 which is still an evolving tournament and has massive scope to grow compared with the 6N which is an old tournament that has maxed out its earning potential.

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby Chester-Donnelly » Sat, 24 Oct 2020, 08:37

It would be interesting to know what rugby competitions do people in Europe and Africa watch? (People not living in a country with its own professional rugby). I would imagine rugby fans in Southern Africa would follow whatever competition the professional South African teams play in. In North Africa and Europe I would think the Top 14 is the most followed league. Pro 14 is still probably seen as quite British and I don't think adding the South African teams will really change this, but I could be wrong. If in the future there could be Spanish teams and an Eastern European conference, the Pro 14 (Pro 24) could be the most followed league in Europe.

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby sk 88 » Sat, 24 Oct 2020, 09:40

Chester-Donnelly wrote:
sk 88 wrote:Would it though?

from who? We're told that the reason SA can't play a domestic league is a lack of a strong currency ... so who is providing the cash if they come north?


I'm not sure, but I think having South African teams makes it more valuable in England for example, and any other country that has a market for professional club rugby.


How? I'm not going to pay more to watch them, are there really *that* many South African ex-pats in England? More than for instance expanding to new clubs in Birmingham or extra clubs in London for instance?

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby Chester-Donnelly » Sat, 24 Oct 2020, 10:25

sk 88 wrote:
Chester-Donnelly wrote:
sk 88 wrote:Would it though?

from who? We're told that the reason SA can't play a domestic league is a lack of a strong currency ... so who is providing the cash if they come north?


I'm not sure, but I think having South African teams makes it more valuable in England for example, and any other country that has a market for professional club rugby.


How? I'm not going to pay more to watch them, are there really *that* many South African ex-pats in England? More than for instance expanding to new clubs in Birmingham or extra clubs in London for instance?


I like Pro 14, and with more competitive teams I will probably watch more of it. But I won't pay for it. There is so much rugby on TV I can watch for free I won't pay to watch any rugby on TV.

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby Bolaroid » Sat, 24 Oct 2020, 10:52

Canalina wrote:Castrogiovanni and myrugby.ge: jab and counter-jab... :)

"If only the quality and result of the game was decisive, Georgia would probably be in 6 nations" - Castrojovani
Italian rugby legend Martin Castrojovani spoke to the Irish The42.ie about a notorious topic - Georgia's possible replacement of Italy in 6 nations, which has been increasingly talked about by foreign fans in recent years. According to Kastrojovan, these are cheap conversations.
According to the Irish edition, Georgia will have the best chance to prove its capabilities to the rugby world in November. The Bogs will face England, Wales and Ireland in the autumn Cup of Nations (in 8 nations), and in the playoffs there is a great chance to play against Italy.

https://myrugby.ge/slaidi/3348-gadamwyv ... ovani.html

:lol: :lol:

GeoRugby wrote:No one will kick Italy out of 6N , but there is something wrong, when the main argument from an Italian player for keeping Italy in 6N becomes-They want to come here because it's Rome. Whats wrong with Tbilisi? Hospitable people, beautiful architecture, great wine and delicious food. Scotland didn't mind coming to Georgia.

Most people in the British Isles haven't even heard of Tblisi, they know Rome which is quite close. Many will associate Georgia with a US state. I'm not saying it's right, but it is a factor.

victorsra wrote:It is a bit bizarre to be offended by the simple fact you are everyones rivals... it wasn't agressive, it was even friendly, the type of healthy rivalry of rugby. But, I'm not English to judge.

It's not wholly about the rugby though, it's deeper-seated. Shades of when Georgia play Russia, not as raw, but the same principle.

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby victorsra » Sat, 24 Oct 2020, 13:33

Yes, of course, it is not realy about sports.

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby victorsra » Sat, 24 Oct 2020, 13:38

Chester-Donnelly wrote:It would be interesting to know what rugby competitions do people in Europe and Africa watch? (People not living in a country with its own professional rugby). I would imagine rugby fans in Southern Africa would follow whatever competition the professional South African teams play in. In North Africa and Europe I would think the Top 14 is the most followed league. Pro 14 is still probably seen as quite British and I don't think adding the South African teams will really change this, but I could be wrong. If in the future there could be Spanish teams and an Eastern European conference, the Pro 14 (Pro 24) could be the most followed league in Europe.


It has also a lot to do with broadcasting rights too. For exemple, in Brazil, for some random reason, Premiership is available, but PRO14 and Top 14 aren't. It is not because rugby people like more the English clubs. What rugby people realy like here is Super Rugby. MUCH more than European rugby. Probably the same is true around the world and only shows how much of a comercial potencial Super Rugby wasted.

However, I'd say among European clubs people here like more the Irish teams (Leinster, Munster), as Champions Cup was avalaible on TV too (before EPCR cancelling the contract to sell its own official streaming... which will completely kill any interest on the tournament here IMO). Again, random reason, probably because people like Irish beer and St. Patrick's Day. Ireland has an impressive soft power.

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby iul » Sat, 24 Oct 2020, 16:03

sk 88 wrote:
Chester-Donnelly wrote:
sk 88 wrote:Would it though?

from who? We're told that the reason SA can't play a domestic league is a lack of a strong currency ... so who is providing the cash if they come north?


I'm not sure, but I think having South African teams makes it more valuable in England for example, and any other country that has a market for professional club rugby.


How? I'm not going to pay more to watch them, are there really *that* many South African ex-pats in England? More than for instance expanding to new clubs in Birmingham or extra clubs in London for instance?

One extra home game for Eng every 2 years. One extra game on TV where advertisers can buy ads for

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby Canadian_Rugger » Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 17:18

victorsra wrote:
Chester-Donnelly wrote:It would be interesting to know what rugby competitions do people in Europe and Africa watch? (People not living in a country with its own professional rugby). I would imagine rugby fans in Southern Africa would follow whatever competition the professional South African teams play in. In North Africa and Europe I would think the Top 14 is the most followed league. Pro 14 is still probably seen as quite British and I don't think adding the South African teams will really change this, but I could be wrong. If in the future there could be Spanish teams and an Eastern European conference, the Pro 14 (Pro 24) could be the most followed league in Europe.


It has also a lot to do with broadcasting rights too. For exemple, in Brazil, for some random reason, Premiership is available, but PRO14 and Top 14 aren't. It is not because rugby people like more the English clubs. What rugby people realy like here is Super Rugby. MUCH more than European rugby. Probably the same is true around the world and only shows how much of a comercial potencial Super Rugby wasted.

However, I'd say among European clubs people here like more the Irish teams (Leinster, Munster), as Champions Cup was avalaible on TV too (before EPCR cancelling the contract to sell its own official streaming... which will completely kill any interest on the tournament here IMO). Again, random reason, probably because people like Irish beer and St. Patrick's Day. Ireland has an impressive soft power.


Same in Canada. Super Rugby has been the only Pro Rugby shown in Canada on a major sports channel consistently for the past 25 years.

It's also the Rugby that actual Rugby people here enjoy and follow. I agree that they wasted a lot of potential marketing power they did have.

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby Hernan14 » Sun, 25 Oct 2020, 23:36

Canadian_Rugger wrote:
victorsra wrote:
Chester-Donnelly wrote:It would be interesting to know what rugby competitions do people in Europe and Africa watch? (People not living in a country with its own professional rugby). I would imagine rugby fans in Southern Africa would follow whatever competition the professional South African teams play in. In North Africa and Europe I would think the Top 14 is the most followed league. Pro 14 is still probably seen as quite British and I don't think adding the South African teams will really change this, but I could be wrong. If in the future there could be Spanish teams and an Eastern European conference, the Pro 14 (Pro 24) could be the most followed league in Europe.


It has also a lot to do with broadcasting rights too. For exemple, in Brazil, for some random reason, Premiership is available, but PRO14 and Top 14 aren't. It is not because rugby people like more the English clubs. What rugby people realy like here is Super Rugby. MUCH more than European rugby. Probably the same is true around the world and only shows how much of a comercial potencial Super Rugby wasted.

However, I'd say among European clubs people here like more the Irish teams (Leinster, Munster), as Champions Cup was avalaible on TV too (before EPCR cancelling the contract to sell its own official streaming... which will completely kill any interest on the tournament here IMO). Again, random reason, probably because people like Irish beer and St. Patrick's Day. Ireland has an impressive soft power.


Same in Canada. Super Rugby has been the only Pro Rugby shown in Canada on a major sports channel consistently for the past 25 years.

It's also the Rugby that actual Rugby people here enjoy and follow. I agree that they wasted a lot of potential marketing power they did have.


The problem with Super Rugby is the time of the matches, obviously I get up to watch a World Cup in Japan, and I tried to watch all the games, but the Super Rugby games, sometimes I saw them, sometimes I fell asleep or made another things (friday/saturday) ... look if not wasted a lot of potential marketing power that even not put good times for the Jaguars games, I know a lot of people who would have seen the away games, but basically they only watched against the South African teams ... so difficult that some matches would will they play at 2pm in NZ? That would be 22 pm here. At that time we dinner in Argentina, better time impossible, but no, 2:30 am, 4:30 am, etc ...I only remember some games that started around 0:30 am

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby iul » Mon, 26 Oct 2020, 04:41

And what time do Argies go to bed?

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby victorsra » Mon, 26 Oct 2020, 13:56

Cop Libertadores matches on Wednesdays are like 10 PM and people attend it. On a Friday or Saturday, a match like 11 PM or even midnight would have a big number of TV viewer for sure.

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Re: Are the stars aligning for a 6N expansion?

Postby Tobar » Mon, 26 Oct 2020, 16:50

victorsra wrote:Cop Libertadores matches on Wednesdays are like 10 PM and people attend it. On a Friday or Saturday, a match like 11 PM or even midnight would have a big number of TV viewer for sure.


A bit different when it’s your city’s team and the sport is huge in the region.

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