Tier 2 & 3 Rugby Forum

Immigration

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Sat, 04 Jan 2020, 10:01

Russia will spend the 2010s seeking to secure itself before the demographic decline really hits. It will do this by trying to move from raw commodity exports to process commodity exports, moving up the value chain to fortify its economy while its demographics still allow it. Russia will also seek to reintegrate the former Soviet republics into some coherent entity in order to delay its demographic problems, expand its market and above all reabsorb some territorial buffers. Russia sees itself as under the gun, and therefore is in a hurry. This will cause it to appear more aggressive and dangerous than it is in the long run. However, in the 2010s, Russia’s actions will cause substantial anxiety in its neighbors, both in terms of national security and its rapidly shifting economic policies.


The current confrontation with Russia over Ukraine will remain a centerpiece of the international system over the next few years, but we do not think the Russian Federation can exist in its current form for the entire decade. Its overwhelming dependence on energy exports and the unreliability of expectations on pricing make it impossible for Moscow to sustain its institutional relations across the wide swathe of the Russian federation. We expect Moscow’s authority to weaken substantially, leading to the formal and informal fragmentation of Russia. The security of Russia’s nuclear arsenal will become a prime concern as this process accelerates later in the decade.


There is no decline and disintegration of territories. Dependence on Western sanctions is minimal.Dependence of economy on raw material exports has been reduced.
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Sat, 04 Jan 2020, 10:19

Moreover, we expect Poland to be the leader of an anti-Russia coalition that would, significantly, include Romania during the first half of this decade. In the second half of the decade, this alliance will play a major role in reshaping the Russian borderlands and retrieving lost territories through informal and formal means. Eventually as Moscow weakens, this alliance will become the dominant influence not only in Belarus and Ukraine, but also farther east. This will further enhance Poland’s and its allies’ economic and political position.Poland will benefit from having a strategic partnership with the United States. Whenever a leading global power enters into a relationship with a strategic partner, it is in the global power’s interest to make the partner as economically vigorous as possible, both to stabilize its society and to make it capable of building a military force. Poland will be in that position with the United States, as will Romania. Washington has made its interest in the region obvious.


This nonsense is generally difficult to comment on. In order for Poland and Romania to become a threat to Russia collapse and civil war in Russia are needed.

this alliance will play a major role in reshaping the Russian borderlands and retrieving lost territories through informal and formal means.
??????

Romania does not border Russia at all, and Poland borders Russia only in isolated Kaliningrad region. I not sure that Poland will be able to cope with army group in area, and in fact there and rest of Russia!
But western territories of Ukraine they may well be taken away from idiots from Kiev. Hungary and Slovakia will help them in this.
Forget about Belarus too. Its like attacking Russia.
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Sat, 04 Jan 2020, 10:26

FORMER SOVIET UNION It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form. Russia’s failure to transform its energy revenue into a self-sustaining economy makes it vulnerable to price fluctuations. It has no defense against these market forces. Given the organization of the federation, with revenue flowing to Moscow before being distributed directly or via regional governments, the flow of resources will also vary dramatically. This will lead to a repeat of the Soviet Union’s experience in the 1980s and Russia’s in the 1990s, in which Moscow’s ability to support the national infrastructure declined. In this case, it will cause regions to fend for themselves by forming informal and formal autonomous entities. The economic ties binding the Russian periphery to Moscow will fray.Historically, the Russians solved such problems via the secret police – the KGB and its successor, the Federal Security Services. But just as in the 1980s, the secret police will not be able to contain the centrifugal forces pulling regions away from Moscow this decade. In this case, the FSB’s power is weakened by its leadership’s involvement in the national economy. As the economy falters, so does the FSB’s strength. Without the FSB inspiring genuine terror, the fragmentation of the Russian Federation will not be preventable.To Russia’s west, Poland, Hungary and Romania will seek to recover regions lost to the Russians at various points. They will work to bring Belarus and Ukraine into this fold. In the south, the Russians’ ability to continue controlling the North Caucasus will evaporate, and Central Asia will destabilize. In the northwest, the Karelian region will seek to rejoin Finland. In the Far East, the Maritime regions more closely linked to China, Japan and the United States than to Moscow will move independently. Other areas outside of Moscow will not necessarily seek autonomy but will have it thrust upon them. This is the point: There will not be an uprising against Moscow, but Moscow’s withering ability to support and control the Russian Federation will leave a vacuum. What will exist in this vacuum will be the individual fragments of the Russian Federation.This will create the greatest crisis of the next decade. Russia is the site of a massive nuclear strike force distributed throughout the hinterlands. The decline of Moscow’s power will open the question of who controls those missiles and how their non-use can be guaranteed. This will be a major test for the United States. Washington is the only power able to address the issue, but it will not be able to seize control of the vast numbers of sites militarily and guarantee that no missile is fired in the process. The United States will either have to invent a military solution that is difficult to conceive of now, accept the threat of rogue launches, or try to create a stable and economically viable government in the regions involved to neutralize the missiles over time. It is difficult to imagine how this problem will play out. However, given our forecast on the fragmentation of Russia, it follows that this issue will have to be addressed, likely in the next decade.
:D
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Sat, 04 Jan 2020, 10:31

Russia sees itself as under the gun, and therefore is in a hurry. This will cause it to appear more aggressive and dangerous than it is in the long run.


:D

Last week, President Vladimir Putin of Russia announced the deployment of the Avangard, among the first in a new class of missiles capable of reaching hypersonic velocity — something no missile can currently achieve, aside from an ICBM during re-entry.

Such weapons have long been an object of desire by Russian, Chinese and American military leaders, for obvious reasons: Launched from any of these countries, they could reach any other within minutes. No existing defenses, in the United States or elsewhere, can intercept a missile that can move so fast while maneuvering unpredictably.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/02/opin ... siles.html
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Sat, 04 Jan 2020, 10:41



Ask dead for the price of words.
They will give you answer:
15 thousand sunrises without sleep
We beat red ... We beat white ...
10 happy years !!! "
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Sat, 04 Jan 2020, 10:59

This forecast could come true if not for Putin.
After Yeltsin everything went precisely to such a development of events.

Image

-I know one guy who will create big problems for your in 20 years ...

- What are you talking about, old alcoholic!
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Mon, 06 Jan 2020, 07:00

Кilling of Suleimani in Iraq is a spit in face of all Shiites of Middle East. Especially Iran and Iraq and a flagrant violation of international law.

Russia has a military base in Belarus. Suppose Mark Pompeo arrived in Minsk Russian drone destroys it along with a motorcade !

This is really blatant incompetence and stupidity , why Trump can get impechment in my opinion.
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Mon, 06 Jan 2020, 07:14

When there was a cold war countries were led mainly by qualifed people. Now that most countres are headed by idiots world is much closer to destruction.
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Mon, 06 Jan 2020, 08:18

I dont remember who said it. You can insure powder factory, but you can not insure powder factory where crazy people work.
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Mon, 06 Jan 2020, 08:24

US ceases to be a world hegemon, main thing is that it would not end with death of mankind.
Russian weapons will help in this. We have best missiles and missile defense in world and Putin will not allow to solve everything by military means.
At least i hope so.
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Mon, 06 Jan 2020, 20:16

Sometimes in Yale can meet a good specialist on situation in Russia ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8X7Ng75e5gQ&t=601s

But usually their opinion is not interesting to anyone.
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Tue, 07 Jan 2020, 10:09

Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Wed, 08 Jan 2020, 08:18

US will not be able to respond with anything other than a nuclear strike. I hope that Russia and China will not allow them to do this.
I think this is end of US global dominance.
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Sun, 12 Jan 2020, 08:34

Ben Wallace interview: We can’t rely on US

Britain must prepare to fight wars without America, the defence secretary has warned, amid concerns that President Donald Trump will pursue an ever more isolationist foreign policy.

In an interview with The Sunday Times, Ben Wallace admitted that the prospect of America withdrawing from the world “keeps me awake at night”.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news ... -pmwcgv398
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Sun, 12 Jan 2020, 14:12

"We have to look at China and Russia and the speed at which they’re moving," he said. "China in particular, is moving unbelievably fast. So we have to make sure that we move as fast or faster than the potential adversary that we have in China and Russia."The United States military is currently in the lead in most capabilities. But, "if you're in a race and someone is running faster, it doesn't matter how far ahead you are, eventually that somebody is going to catch and pass you. We can't ever allow that to happen," Hyten said.

https://www.defense.gov/explore/story/A ... mpetitive/
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Sun, 12 Jan 2020, 14:17

In my opinion US leads only in terms of military budget and number of carrier formations suitable only for wars with African countries ...
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Mon, 13 Jan 2020, 09:09

Russia returns: Navigating U.S.-Russia relations

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... =emb_title
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Mon, 13 Jan 2020, 09:14

Еxpansion of NATO to East is curently not main reason for deteroration of relations. Even if NATO falls into hell, nothing will change.
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Mon, 13 Jan 2020, 09:18

Comments on video.

Don't forget that Russia was the main part of the cultish totalitarian fascist regime which threatened the globe with total nuclear annihilation for 40 years and total political destruction for more than 70 years. The Cold War has caused tremendous suffering in blood and treasure all around the world. Has Russia actually even issued a formal apology for any of it? Has Russia ever behaved itself like a country in such position should after loosing the war? The only possible analogous situation in history are Japan and Germany after the WWII. Please take a look at how they conduct foreign and domestic policy for an example how Russia should behave to be accepted as repentant.

The West has done everything and anything possible to spoil Russia into being an entitled little brat. The West has provided Russia with economic and humanitarian assistance in the 90's. The West has given Russia the Soviet seat at the UNSC while Russia didn't deserve it. The West has provided Russia with all sorts of technologies, expertise, and financial access. The West has even accepted Russia into the G7 which is the group of great industrial liberal democracies while Russia was neither of those and at the same time as Russia was waging an atrocious ethnic cleansing war in Chechnya.

And what exactly did Russia do to join the West?

Has Russia given Japan back the Northern Territories and signed the peace treaty? Nope.

Has Russia worked with the West to solve the Transnistrian conflict and get Moldova out of diplomatic limbo? Nope, Russian troops are still causing mischief there 30 years later. Heck, Russia has even used its military to create five more occupied Transnistrias in Georgia and Ukraine, one of which was annexed by Russia throwing even Russian borders into internationally unacceptable state.

Has Russia taken the West's side in the Yugoslavian crisis? Nope, Russia threw an international tantrum when their dear genocidal buddy Milošević was bombed by the NATO forces.

Has Russia even proposed to at least do something to solve most atrocious and problematic parts of the Soviet empire's legacy like North Korea and Cuba? Nope, Russia is still making both of those worse by financially assisting Cuba and by doing some shady deals with employment of tens of thousands of North Koreans in labor camps with revenue stream directly to the regime. There are also signs of illegal sanction-busting activity by Russia and even rumors of technological assistance to North Korea with both nuclear and missile expertise.

Has Russia assisted the West's goals in Iraq? Nope, Russia was audacious enough to constantly criticize the US for the invasion while reaping every benefit of higher oil prices.

Has Russia assisted the West's goals in Libya? Nope, Russia abstained from the vote in the UNSC and is still constantly making that conflict worse by supporting Haftar.

Has Russia assisted the West's goals in Syria? Nope, Russia is supporting their genocidal buddy Assad against all signals from the West that he is unacceptable and must be held accountable.

Has Russia assisted the West's goals in Venezuela? Nope, Russia is supporting their criminal buddy Maduro against all rational thinking.

And what exactly Russia has done to get closer to joining the EU and NATO? Has Russia ever adopted NATO military standards and regulations? Has Russia ever invited the NATO forces to provide training, assessment, and expertise? Has Russia ever requested a membership plan? Has Russia ever adopted the EU standards in law, justice, politics, economics, civil society, and trade? IIRC, Russia still hasn't even complied with all the obligations for the WTO accession process. Has Russia ever had a proper free and fair elections with proper parliamentarian process which is a requirement for the EU? Has Russia even applied for membership in the OECD and used its expertise to adapt the Russian economy to be compatible with the US and the EU?

If Russia wanted to join the EU, NATO, and the West in general then where are actions, policies, and signals on Russian side towards these goals? It's not enough to halfheartedly entertain an idea in a speech at a summit somewhere. It's necessary to formally request membership plans and show goodwill by aligning interests, values, and policies, both foreign and domestic. Russia has never done that, quite to the contrary Russia has done everything to produce hostility by its antagonizing and abhorrent foreign and domestic behavior.
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Mon, 13 Jan 2020, 09:25

Mistake is that Russia was mistaken for losing side. Comparing Russia with Germany and Japan is ridiculous, no one has occupied us, so look for lackeys in Eastern Europe ....
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Mon, 13 Jan 2020, 09:26

It won't work due to various societal, geopolitical, geoeconomical, and geostrategic reasons.
Both Russia and China practice rabid nationalism with delusions of grandeur as their main domestic regime selling point. China at least could justify a bet for being a superpower based on economic performance. But Russia has economy and society totally in shambles.
Both Russia and China could use the US as a boogeyman for their societies as long as the US doesn't care and doesn't use its power to full extent to crush or at least drastically limit either one.
But the problem starts when the US begins to take China seriously and global rivalry with the US becomes a serious matter, and process of political, economic, and financial decoupling with containment and such taking place while the world splits in half like during the Cold War.
Such environment will first of all force a pick of sides and essentially force Russia to a subservient role to China. That won't sit well with a society that was pumped up by rabid nationalism. It's one thing to imagine Russia as a superpower that pushes back on the US interests everywhere around the globe and it's rather different to see a reality of being pushed around by the Chinese interests like a vassal state. Russian will also see it clear as a day that the US takes China seriously while Russia is just a minor annoyance.
It won't sit well with Russian elites either. Russian elites don't send their kids to study to the Beijing Polytechnic, they send them to Harvard, Yale, or Cambridge. Russian elites don't buy condos in Shenzhen or Shanghai, they buy condos in Miami, London, or New York. They don't park their yachts in Macau, they park yachts at the French Riviera. They don't keep money even in Hong Kong, they keep money in Switzerland, Cyprus, or London. When access to all that wealth will be threatened by a geopolitical wall it will strike really close to home at least for some.
If rivalry between China and the US gets really serious and into a split of the financial systems or even military confrontation then Chinese access to raw imports will be threatened. China doesn't have a force projection focused blue water navy or military experience to secure interests by force in key locations beyond the first island chain be it the Strait of Malacca or the Strait of Hormuz while the US could block or at least harass those choke points relatively easily while employing diplomacy or even coercion with resource-rich nations to limit supply. But China has a rather substantial land-based army while Siberia next door is rich in resources, low on population, etc. Still Russia has a problem extracting those resources without western technologies and expects payments in a hard western currency. Get that geostrategic map with existential time-bound pressures and military options even with nuclear potential suddenly come to the table. Will Russia cede Siberia and wealth from extraction of those resources to China in such a case peacefully? Especially when resource-extraction due to time constraints will essentially mean military construction. I doubt it and it won't fly well with rabid nationalism. That's essentially a point in history when two rabidly nationalistic countries have a breakdown in relations and fight a war even if they tried to be allies.
And you must be pretty damn sure that in such a tense game when the stakes are existential and global, the US won't just sit back and wait while Russia and China try to solve this conundrum. Every wedge will be hammered, every contradiction amplified both inside two societies and internationally, consequences be damned. Reverse-Nixon to Russia will be on the table, etc.
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Mon, 13 Jan 2020, 09:38

In Russia nationalism of any particular nation (Russian) is not cultivated, otherwise borders of Russia would now be size of Moscow region. Russia is a country for all citizens with its own purpose different from western one.
Russian nationalism that is not popular. It is usually associated with idea of ​​European racist groups. White Brotherhood, etc, etc. It is very similar to Ukrainian one with same roots, they even fight together against Russians in Donbass! Pan-European white identity is stronger than pan-Russian! This is lot of marginalized.
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Mon, 13 Jan 2020, 09:47

Сlash between China and Russia is much less likely than US and China, because this is a matter of world domination. I see no reason why Russians and Chinese would kill each other to joy of US.

Russian elite that holds money and educates children in West ...
Do not confuse elite with whores. Russian elite has ensured country independence and economic development over past two decades, and whores live in West with money stolen from people.
Russia and West now have different values, but this does not mean that whore not can integrate normally in London or NY ...
Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Mon, 13 Jan 2020, 16:14

Image

User avatar
Posts: 5362
Joined: Wed, 22 Jul 2015, 18:20
Location: Moscow
National Flag:
RussiaRussia

Re: Immigration

Postby Vova12 » Mon, 13 Jan 2020, 16:21

I own a piece of land and a house in most depressed region of Russia - Tver region.
Several times a month i go there. As uprising against Putin begins, i will inform in a separate message ... :D
Image

PreviousNext

Return to Other subjects

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests