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Virus 19

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Virus 19

Postby Canalina » Sat, 07 Mar 2020, 18:27

The Covid19 is increasing and increasing in Italy
The three most affected regions so far are, due to a joker fate, the most rugby ones: Lombardia (the epicentral zone of the contagium in the nation), Emilia Romagna and Veneto.
The numbers are still far from the chinese ones, but I fear we don't have the same discipline of the Chinese people, necessary to contain and to defeat the virus.
In the map below:
Attualmente positivi means currently infected
Guariti means Healed
Deceduti means dead
Totale positivi means Total amount of people infected (the sum of the three previous data)

http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... e38d4138b1

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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sat, 07 Mar 2020, 19:02

It is necessary to close border. Buy food and stay at home. You are an aged man.
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sat, 07 Mar 2020, 19:07

This is not worst virus, but Europe must prepare for such situations.Older person - greater danger.
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Canalina » Sat, 07 Mar 2020, 20:33

The fact that the virus is just lowly lethal is obviously a lucky thing but in a minor way also a misfortune: people think "oh, come on, I don't know anybody who died or got sick by this virus, let's go out and have fun without all these boring worries!". In my city (part of the second italian region most affected) there are still thousands and thousands of people gathering in the centre of the town on saturday afternoon, just to relax. I don't say that all the persons are so, many of them are aware of the characteristics of this virus and of the precautioning needs, but generally I still perceive a too low consciousness of the situation.
Of course the younger people are the less worried, because of the inclination of that age and because it seems they're way less affected by the contagium

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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sat, 07 Mar 2020, 20:37

Do not be surprised, but most people are stupid and careles. 8-)
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Re: Virus 19

Postby rey200 » Sat, 07 Mar 2020, 21:18

man Italy is hit hard. I guess they have much more cases than reported. Too many deaths for such a small number of infections.
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Canalina » Sat, 07 Mar 2020, 21:32

Yes, that's a common suspect: the number of positives must be much higher than the recorded one.
Fortunately many infected people have light or even unperceived symptoms, but this means that often they are not recorded between the positive at the exam; and this also means that they pass the virus unconsciously to other people, and those other people may be not so lucky with the symptoms

All the people I know reacted more or less in the same way in front of this menace: firstly a period of denial ("come on, they're too alarmist, it's a light virus and it will pass quickly"), then the moment of the awareness.
My suggestion, if the virus will arrive in your countries, is to make the denial period as brief as possible: it makes you losing precious time to stop the virus at the beginning of its spreading

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Re: Virus 19

Postby rey200 » Sat, 07 Mar 2020, 21:52

I just don't know if shutting down the whole country will do any good.
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sat, 07 Mar 2020, 22:01

sick / dead / cured /%
South Korea - 7041/44/135 / 0.6
Italy 5883/233/589/4
Iran 5823/145/1669 / 2.5
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Canalina » Sat, 07 Mar 2020, 22:06

rey200 wrote:I just don't know if shutting down the whole country will do any good.

It's also a matter of gaining time: before someone will find a cure, or a vaccine, or just to dilute the cases the most it's possible.
Today a document from a group of physicians circulated on the web: it says more or less "if the caring structures will not quickly widened and potentiated, we are near to the moment in which we will be forced to choose which patients accept in intensive care and which not, rejecting those with less chances to survive".
And we are just at 6,000 official infected people. If it arrived to 6 millions infected, like some "normal" flu does, I don't know what it will happen

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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sat, 07 Mar 2020, 22:07

We do not know exact data. Perhaps some whereall people with influenza are considered to be sick with a coronavirus. In some countries number of cases is hushed up so as not to kill tourist season ( Turkey).There is an epidemic in Iran and not a single sick person in Turkey!
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sat, 07 Mar 2020, 22:11

It seems to me that antiepidemic service in Europe has not improved much since plague in Middle Ages.
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Canalina » Sat, 07 Mar 2020, 22:13

Vova12 wrote:sick / dead / cured /%
South Korea - 7041/44/135 / 0.6
Italy 5883/233/589/4
Iran 5823/145/1669 / 2.5

I've read that the difference comes from the fact that in South Korea they've chosen to make extensive controls, examining everyone who has even far symptoms: this means that they record also many of the light cases (so the % of hospitality and of mortality goes down because the base of the ratio is larger) and that they are able to start earlier the cures, this reducing damages and mortality

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Re: Virus 19

Postby Canalina » Sat, 07 Mar 2020, 22:18

Vova12 wrote:It seems to me that antiepidemic service in Europe has not improved much since plague in Middle Ages.

Italy has a good wealth system, I'm always admired by the competence of doctors, nurses, janitors... of everyone... every time I have to go to the hospital (it happened very few times, fortunately). And it's a state service, despite usually the state employees are depicted as lazy and few passionated.
We were just not prepared for a situation like this; we all thought it was a thing of the past

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Re: Virus 19

Postby 4N » Sun, 08 Mar 2020, 04:36

I heard they are quarantining Milan? Crazy stuff.

The store shelves are completely empty in the disinfectant aisle here. Two local cases so far.

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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sun, 08 Mar 2020, 07:40

Most people killed by the virus are elderly patients and those with preexisting health problems. Infected people aged 80 years and older have a high fatality rate of 14.8 percent. Patients aged between 70 and 79 years have a fatality rate of 8 percent.

In Italy, all patients who have died because of COVID-19 were over age 60. The country currently has the highest death toll from the virus in Europe with 80 recorded deaths, according to WHO.

https://www.medicaldaily.com/how-deadly-covid-19-450079
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sun, 08 Mar 2020, 07:44

So buy food and chat with us on this forum! Better stay at home! 8-)

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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Sun, 08 Mar 2020, 11:37

Coronavirus could kill half a million Britons and infect 80% of UK population, government documents indicate

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 60271.html
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Canalina » Sun, 08 Mar 2020, 12:02

In Italy the leader of the main left party contracted the virus, and so the governor of Piedmont region, and a collaborator of the governor of Lombardy, and a pair of important judges, and several other minor local politics. This contrasts, at my eyes, with the ratio of 1 infected every 10,000 inhabitants. The feeling is that the real number of infected people is much higher than the official one. But this, all in all, would be a good news, I think; it would mean that many people lived or are living the virus without sensible consequences, and it would mean that the mortality and the percentage of people to be recovered in intensive care are lower, maybe much lower, than the current data are saying

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Re: Virus 19

Postby Canalina » Sun, 08 Mar 2020, 17:22

San Marino has the highest percentage of detected cases in Europe: something like 1/1200 inhabitants. Data at Sat 7 March

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Re: Virus 19

Postby Canalina » Sun, 08 Mar 2020, 19:39

Today's data in Italy

New detected cases 1350
New deaths 133
New healed 33
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Re: Virus 19

Postby STMKY » Mon, 09 Mar 2020, 10:45

Like Novichek and many other provocations. This is the work of Mi6. These Anglo-Saxon bastards have no moral principles. They lost their colonies. But they are trying to rule the world in other ways. Tell the Irish that we understand them. And we know that the royal house is the bloodiest ghouls in the history of planet Earth.

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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Mon, 09 Mar 2020, 11:12

I also like Hohenzollerns more, but this is no reason to blame British ruling dynasty for all sins ... :D
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Mon, 09 Mar 2020, 11:15

About 150 Italians out of 1000000 have a chance to get coronavirus ...
But your need to deal with protection of population.
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Re: Virus 19

Postby Vova12 » Mon, 09 Mar 2020, 11:19

Canalina wrote:Today's data in Italy

New detected cases 1350
New deaths 133
New healed 33
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Do not try to eat in restaurants! Cook only at home! Do not appear without reason in crowded places!
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